Germany Votes, Still Hasn’t Got a Government

When German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder of the Social Democrats arranged to lose a vote of confidence to get around a technical point in the Germany Constitution that inhibits early elections, it was thought pretty likely that his successor would be the Christian Democrats’ Angela Merkel. After a pretty awful campaign in which a 20% lead in the polls collapsed to less than 1% on polling day, Frau Merkel may still get the job, but she doesn’t have a majority, and that means Germany has just put the entire European agenda on hold.

The final results are: CDU/CSU(a sister party in Bavaria) won 35.2% of the vote and 225 seats, the Social Democrats (SPD) 34.3% and 222, Free Democrats 9.8% and 61, Left Party (formerly the Communists and fellow travelers) 8.7% for 54, and the Greens got 8.1% for 51. Mathematically, the next government must either be a “grand coalition” between the CDU and SPD, or a triple alliance. The three-way grouping is unlikely because neither the CDU or the SPD wants to deal with the reds and because the Free Democrats’ pro-business line doesn’t mesh with the Greens’ agenda.

So there is to be haggling in the coming days about who gets what job. Frau Merkel is likely to be chancellor, although Herr Schröder isn’t giving up on that yet. The grand coalition has been tried once before in Germany (or more precisely West Germany) in 1966-1969. It was not reckoned much of a success, and in the end, this isn’t going to work for long in 2005. Germany is rapidly becoming the sick man of Europe, and unless some jobs get created in the east and some reforms are achieved across the economy, the nation is merely wasting time. And Europe can’t get anything done (like talking turkey with Turkey about joining) without a German voice.

It is easy to go overboard on pessimism, however. Some have claimed this is the worst election result in Germany history. Not quite, Herr Hitler won the 1933 vote (yes, children, Adolf Hitler was constitutionally elected – beware democracy). Some have said that Frau Merkel ran the worst campaign in election history. That isn’t true either; Kim Campbell in Canada led the Progressive Conservatives from being the ruling party to having just 2 seats in Ottawa in the 1993 election, and she lost her own seat. Frau Merkel did get the most votes and won the most seats.

There is a way out for Germany. The constitution requires the new parliament to sit and elect a new chancellor by October 18. If not, another election can be held. It makes present-day Germany start to look like 1950s Italy, with a new election every few months, but perhaps this will give the German people a chance to reconsider. After all, democracy is supposed to be a self-correcting process. Having got it wrong in September, Germany could make it right in October, this time by electing a government rather than merely voting.

© Copyright 2005 by The Kensington Review, J. Myhre, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent.
Produced using Fedora Linux.


Home