Poland’s Voters Shift to the Right

Margaret Thatcher ran against a British leftwing government in 1979 that had managed to boost unemployment to record post-war levels with a motto “Labour Isn’t Working.” The Polish people yesterday threw out a left-wing government of “reformed” communists for much the same reason – 18% unemployment equals a failed government. However, the center-right coalition that is aborning might regret winning a year or two from now. Intractable is the word that best describes Poland’s labor situation.

With 40% turnout, Poles have started acting like other citizens of the developed world – they can’t be bothered to vote. Still, the conservative Law and Justice party, led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, won 152 of the 460 seats with 27% of the vote. The pro-business Civic Platform carried 133 seats with 24%, meaning that the two combined have a majority. Unlike the Germans to the west, the Polish parties seem to have no trouble agreeing to work together. Actually working together is another matter.

The Civic Platform wants a flat tax, and the business community loves the idea, but Law and Justice isn’t so sure. Law and Justice worries that the flat tax will hurt the poor disproportionately, promising to protect the “social market economy.” It is also dubious about abandoning the zloty for the euro at the moment. The Civic Platform and the business interests behind it much prefer the euro.

The political landscape is further complicated by next month’s presidential elections. Unlike many European States, the presidency in Poland is a bit more than a figurehead. Indeed, current Polish President Alexander Kwasniewski played a vital role in mediating a peaceful end to Ukraine’s Orange Revolution late last year. This time, Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s twin brother Lech is running for the presidency as the Law and Justice candidate against Civic Platform’s Donald Tusk (profiled in today’s Wall Street Journal). Should Mr. Tusk win, the junior coalition member will hold the presidency. Yet having twins (known colloquially as “the ducks”) run things may not be too wise either; think President George “Nero” Bush and Speaker of the House Jeb Bush and one gets the general idea.

Poland has had an unhappy history largely due to an unhappy geography. And since 1989, the Poles have managed to throw out every government they have elected, in part, because they ejoyed the novelty of being able to do so. But in part, they did so because the government deserved it as well. In the next couple of years, the real measure of the success or failure of the coalition will be the number of jobs created. If no progress is made, this government won’t win, or deserve, re-election either.

© Copyright 2005 by The Kensington Review, J. Myhre, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent.
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