Sharon Narrowly Defeats Netanyahu over Withdrawal

The Israeli governing party, Likud, backed Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s withdrawal from the Gaza Strip by only a thin margin on Monday. The central committee was voting on a measure to bring forward the date of party primaries, largely to let Benjamin Netanyahu challenge Mr. Sharon before the withdrawal takes hold. Mr. Sharon’s forces carried the day 1,433 to 1,329. It was a victory worthy of Pyrrhus.

Mr. Sharon was under no illusions that this rather dull procedural vote was really just a dull procedural vote. He said on Sunday, “Tomorrow's vote is not a technical one. It is an attempt to expel me.” However, with the date for the primaries set for next spring anyway, the reprieve will be short.

Much more damaging is the 104-vote victory margin. If just 53 people change their minds about Mr. Sharon, he will lose control of his own party. He needs to succeed in linking the done-deed of withdrawal with the largely unfinished peace, albeit heavily armed, with the Palestinian population – not just with the rather unimportant Palestinian Authority but also with Hamas and the real power on the ground, the armed militants. The thin margin of victory will effectively constrain him from making any further bold or even long-term moves. Which may be just what is needed to get the job done.

Mr. Netanyahu may yet succeed in wresting the control of Likud from Mr. Sharon. He resigned in August as finance minister to protest the withdrawal, but in that time, he achieved a certain degree of reform for which he is actually getting credit among voters. And he was once prime minister himself. However, there is nothing he needs to do, nor is there much he can do. Mr. Sharon’s star will rise or fall in inverse proportion to the death toll from suicide bombers.

The next date for a political crisis is March 31, 2006. The government must, by that date, pass a budget. Mr. Sharon will need to get the votes in the Knesset of Mr. Netanyahu’s supporters – they are, after all, in the same ruling party. No budget on April 1 would mean a general election. Mr. Netanyahu probably doesn’t want that, as it would give Mr. Sharon a new mandate should he win. And yet, he can’t split entirely from the party, or he will not be able to count on the 61 Knesset seats needed to be PM. Meanwhile, the opposition Labour Party is sharpening its knives and waiting – but for what? As Napoleon Bonaparte observed, “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”


© Copyright 2005 by The Kensington Review, J. Myhre, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent.
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