Faces and Numbers

26 October 2005



US Troops’ Death Toll in Iraq Hits 2,000

Once his family had been notified that he wouldn’t come marching home ever, Staff Sergeant George Alexander Jr., 34, of Killeen, Texas, went down in history as the 2,000th American patriot to die in the Iraqi war. As the wise von Clausewitz wrote, war is politics by other means. In other words, a prudent military strategy is dictated by political goals. So at this time, a little reflection about political goals is in order -- dispassionate, forward-looking, honest and skeptical about easy answers.

Whatever the goals of the war were when the fighting began (something about weapons of mass destruction creating a mushroom cloud in America within 45 minutes), the current situation is vastly different. America’s war aim is to get out of Iraq leaving behind a democratic government capable of defending itself. There is national, even international, unity on this. The devil is in the details. Yet, it is important to note that America’s stated goal, shared by virtually every opinion voiced in Iraq, is to withdraw from Iraq. Thoughts of being asked to stay perpetually in an Iraq at peace with itself and its neighbors are delusions.

So, America is going to retreat some day no matter what. It would be stupid to suggest that retreat is not an acceptable military move in pursuit of some political objective. Britain won the First World War, but didn’t keep its troops on the Continent after 1918 because it made no sense to do so. By the same token, not retreating can be worse than a withdrawal – the fate of the Wehrmacht at Stalingrad serves as an admirable example of that folly. America needn’t have its soldiers, marines and airmen in Iraq as a requirement for “victory.” Victory is merely achieving one’s goals.

America’s goals as stated, however, are not entirely a matter of American will. Much depends on Iraqi men and women. As President Bush has said, “As Iraqis stand up, America will stand down.” But what if they decide they like sitting? What if Iraqis decide to have a lie in? Or more likely, what if they simply prove disinterested in standing up for a united Iraq with a multi-ethnic government? From the fall of the Ottoman Empire to today, Iraqis have never had a chance to decide whether they really were a single country -- foreigners have merely told them they are. Thus far, the administration and its supporters have agreed with its detractors that Iraqis want to live together under their own government chosen by the people. But what if that isn’t true? What then becomes of the Bush plan?

The referendum on the new constitution passed, it is said, with about 78% backing. Does this mean that one in five Iraqis won’t fight for their government? Does it mean that 20% will actively fight against it? Only one of 86 Iraqi combat battalions (a battalion amounting to 500-700 men depending on who’s defining these things) is judged capable of dealing with the insurgency without American help (down from three according to General George W. Casey Jr., who oversees US forces in Iraq, in his congressional testimony at the end of September). Are they simply unwilling? Compare that to the still active, useful and committed peshmerga militia of de facto independent Kurdistan numbering 100,000.

There are to be elections for a new parliament in December, and a new government will be formed. And if Iraqis are not willing to fight for that government, then it will be time for America to leave without looking back. There is nothing ignoble about withdrawing when the political goals underlying the military action are impossible. America can’t make the Iraqis live in a unified, democratic state if they don’t want to do so (the Kurds never did). Having given them the chance, America must live with their decision as illustrated by their actions. If the Iraqis won’t fight for their unified country, why should men like Sergeant Alexander? But this is the problem with wars of liberation – unless there is an indigenous resistance already in the field, a government in waiting, outsiders can only create opportunities for the local population. The Iraqis may not want what America wants them to want.


© Copyright 2005 by The Kensington Review, J. Myhre, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent.
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