Most Predictions for 2005 Were Right

In its brief life, this journal has adopted a custom of making annual predictions around New Year’s Day for the coming year. With 2005 all but ended, it appears that nine of the 11 predictions made a year ago came true, while two didn’t. A record like that on Wall Street or in Las Vegas makes one a millionaire. Here, it is even better; it gives one a feeling of smugness.

• “President Bush will succeed in creating a partially privatized Social Security system.” Nope. At the time it was hard to believe the president would go on a 60-day campaign for this policy and then go on a long vacation rather than have Congress vote. That’s what happened though.
• “Field Marshall Donald von Rumsfeld will still be Secretary of Defense on December 31, 2005.” He still is. Suggestions that he was leaving after Lyndon Bush’s second inauguration misjudged both him and the president.
• “Tony Blair will win the British General Election with a reduced majority.” Labour’s majority shrunk by 47 seats to 66.
• “January 30 elections in Iraq will result in a Shi’ite government and continued violence.” The Shi’ites needed the Kurds to get 2/3s of the seats to really run things, but they did call the shots with almost 60% of the seats in the assembly.
• “The American death toll in Iraq for 2005 will top 800 and troop levels will not fall.” The 800 mark was passed in mid-December, and there are still 160,000 US troops in Iraq, up from the 138,000 baseline (which won’t be lowered until next year).
• “Cell phones will have at least one software virus outbreak that requires major repair work.” Not quite -- a few troubles but no major disaster. This may be a problem in the future but not for 2005.
• “The NHL will play ice hockey during the 2005-2006 season but the league will have serious financial trouble.” Game on, but the strike has knocked a couple billion off the value of the NHL.
• “A major airline currently not under bankruptcy protection will file under Chapter 11.” The Kensington Review should get double points for this as both Delta and Northwest both filed for Chapter 11 protection on the same day.
• “The Washington Nationals Baseball team will finish last in their division (leading to a paraphrasing of the old saw “Washington – first in war, first in peace, last in the National League).” Yes, the Nationals wound up 81-81 at the bottom of the NL East. Their record would have tied them for third in the Central and given them second in the West. And yes, the old saw ended “. . . last in the American League.”
• “Jamie Foxx will win the Best Actor Oscar, and deserve it.” He did, and it was one of the best performances in cinema history.
• “Usama bin Laden will still be a free man on December 31, 2005.” It’s a day premature, but there is no reason to think he’s going to be caught before midnight tomorrow.