Sharon’s Stroke is Another Blow to Peace

This journal has maintained since its inception that no one in the Middle East really wants peace badly enough to get it. Now, it seems Fate doesn’t want peace either. Ariel Sharon, Israel’s warrior prime minister, has suffered a stroke that will put the nation’s politics into limbo for months. While not yet fatal to the PM, his hemorrhage is lethal for peace prospects this year.

In any conflict, it takes two to stop fighting. There must be a broad consensus among the population that continued violence is less productive than negotiating a settlement. There must be sufficient force, either physical or moral, available to both to silence any rejectionists. Finally, there must also be leaders on both sides with sufficient trust and credibility among both populations for any settlement to be accepted. With the physical collapse of Mr. Sharon, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict now lacks every single one of these.

Both the Israelis and the Palestinian populations say they want peace. Yet, neither group has engaged in mass protests against its own leadership to force an accommodation. When the Palestinian people beat a few of their own hardmen to death in the street and when the Israeli population tears down the Sharon Wall in an act of civil disobedience, then one might believe that there is a ground swell for peace. Right now, most people on both sides want victory not peace.

As for having sufficient force to put down any rejectionist faction, the Palestinian security forces are a joke. The Israeli Defense Force is a more credible bunch, having removed Jewish colonists from Gaza recently, but one doubts they would force Jews from Jerusalem if that were the price for peace. In the end, the army is the people. If the people won't make peace, the military won't either.

And now, there is a leadership vacuum in both Israel and in the Palestinian proto-state. The Palestinian Authority can’t control Hamas and other groups, and the regime seems to be incapable of reforming itself sufficiently to attract any popular support. Meanwhile, Mr. Sharon decided that he would bolt the Likud Party, start his own grouping in the Knesset, and bring peace from the middle of the political spectrum. Now, whether he lives or dies, that center has no leader. While there is no such thing as a wasted vote, it is going to be hard to drum up support for a faction led by a man who, by election day, will be crippled or dead -- which means, 2006 will not be the year of the final peace settlement. That’s 58 in a row now.


© Copyright 2006 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent.
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