Israeli Voters Pick Kadima, Kick Likud into Fifth

Many in Israel had called it the most boring election in the country’s history, and the record low 62.3% turnout reflected that opinion. Still, with Hamas winning the elections in the Palestinians Territories recently, the new government of Israel is faced with a new set of problems. However, the politicians must first form that government. This will prove interesting.

Of course, this wasn’t how it was supposed to work. Ariel Sharon, the outgoing Prime Minister, split away from the Likud Party and formed Kadima (which means “Forward”) in Hebrew. Kadima was supposed to shatter the mold of Israeli politics, creating a powerful center party that could go forward with Mr. Sharon’s disengagement plan in the occupied territories. His stroke several weeks ago and his continuing coma denied Kadima its leader.

Acting PM Ehud Olmert isn’t General Sharon; he knows it and the Israeli electorate knows it. He did a credible job of leading, but the campaign lacked the fire it could have had. In the end, Kadima finished first with 28 of the 120 Knesset seats, but they had hoped for 40 or so. Labour came in second with 20 and is seen as a coalition partner with Kadima. The ultra-orthodox Shas Party (another possible coalition member) earned 13 seats, and the very hard right-wing Israel Beitenu Party (definitely a future opposition member) scored 12 seats.

Missing from the top 4 was the ruling Likud Party, which effectively was the rump composed of those who had opposed the Sharon plan all along. Likud managed just 11 seats and is certain to be in opposition. This collapse was inevitable, really. Kadima took many of the Likud’s people, both candidates and activists. Moreover, Likud is not that different from some of the other rightist parties in Israel, merely the biggest brand-name. Lots of Coke drinkers switch beverages from time to time, and this is what happened to Likud. Whether the generic right is stronger or weaker actually remains to be seen.

Getting a government in place will require some haggling with parties that won as little as 2% of the vote (that’s all it takes to win a seat under Israel’s extremely democratic system). Then, Kadima will lead Israel toward its “final borders” if Mr. Olmert has his way. He may not. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said Mr. Olmert should “abandon his unilateral plans to fix the borders” (the one that got Mr. Olmert 28 seats) and return to the internationally backed “roadmap for peace.” In the Middle East, the huge changes turn out to be cosmetic ones after all. The election has changed nothing.

© Copyright 2006 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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