Economics to the Rescue

3 May 2006



Scottish Burglaries Down Due to Cheap Electronic Prices

Burglary, or “housebreaking” as it is called in Scottish law, is down dramatically over the past decade. Better policing, more employment opportunities and even better street lighting are all given as reasons for the drop, which shows no sign of stopping. Leaving it to an economist to point out the obvious, though; a lot of stuff isn't worth stealing anymore.

According to police in Scotland, the burglary rate has plummeted from 71,995 in 1995-6 to 34,959 in 2004-5. The Scottish Executive says that there has been a 5% decrease in the number of people convicted of housebreaking in the last year. So, the objective reality is that burglary is not an “in” crime anymore.

Dr .Malcolm Cook, forensic psychologist at Abertay University, told the Scotsman newspaper, “The falling value of electrical goods means housebreaking no longer makes sense. Even the simplest of criminal minds will carry out a risk-benefit analysis.” A quick survey of prices in Scotland by Esure (an online insurance company) shows that electronic prices have dropped to a fraction of their prices 20 years ago. As singer Adam Ant once asked, “What’s the point of robbery when nothing is worth taking?”

According to the Scotsman, “A television that costs £300 now would have cost £870 in real terms in 1995 and £1,122 in 1985. The biggest price drops have been witnessed in film-playing machines. In the 1980s, a Betamax [remember them?] cost the equivalent of £967 in today's money, while in the Nineties a VHS cost £406. Now DVD players are available in supermarkets for as little as £29.99. Esure says there has been a 32 per cent decrease in the frequency of burglary claims in Scotland over three years.”

Dr. Cook also said, “In terms of the quality and quantity of what you might get compared to the risk of getting caught, it's much better to commit a street crime, where the forensic footprint is much less.” He also pointed out, “It is more efficient to go up to someone in the street and threaten them for their mobile phone. It is quicker, and your chances of success are higher.”

Naturally, Dr. Cook, the Scotsman and the Kensington Review oppose street crime, housebreaking, embezzlement and fraud. In these highly litigious days, though, it seems necessary to say so.

© Copyright 2006 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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