Peaceful Divorce?

24 May 2006



Montenegro Votes for Independence from Serbia

Even people with a fair understanding of European geography are hard put to find Montenegro on a map. Having been carved out of the Ottoman Empire in the sixteenth century, the country vanished in the aftermath of World War I, becoming part of Yugoslavia. When that federation went out of business, Montenegro was the last bit still stuck to Serbia. Yesterday, the President of Serbia announced acceptance of Sunday’s referendum, in which 55+% of Montenegro’s voters opted for independence. The story is just beginning.

When the federation with Serbia in 2003 replaced Yugoslavia, Montenegro agreed to hold off on any independence referendum for three years. It also provided that, in the event of secession by ballot, Serbia would be the successor-state for purposes of international law. This means Montenegro must apply to the UN for membership, Serbia but not Montenegro is bound by all existing treaties and executive agreements, and those states that recognized the federal entity by international law are deemed to recognize Serbia but not yet Montenegro. And Serbia gets UN-administered Kosovo, a headache at best. Serbia also gets to play in the World Cup next month in Group C along with the Netherlands, Argentina and Ivory Coast – it is unclear what happens to the Montenegran players on the team.

Montenegro has a population of less than 700,000, making it comparable to Austin, Texas or Palermo, Italy. With an area of 13,812 square kilometers, it is about one third the size of the Netherlands or Switzerland, or just about the size of the American state of Connecticut. There are less viable independent states in the world, but there is reason to worry that Montenegro will need a great deal of help to find its feet.

The European Union can and most likely will provide that support. Without the Serbian connection, and its difficulties with the EU over the Serbian military men (like Ratko Mladic) responsible for genocide in the 1990s, Montenegro could well find itself on a fast track to EU membership. Little countries don’t (can’t) rock the boat the way big ones (like Turkey) do, so reasons to deny membership are few. – although the BBC includes on that list poor administrative capacity and the country’s “modest results” in fighting corruption and organized crime.

However, the final act in the dismemberment of Yugoslavia is Kosovo. Serbia maintains a legal claim, but the UN is currently administering the province. With a population that is 90% ethnically Albanian, any referendum there would end in a call for independence as well. Montenegro has pointed the way, and this is where it gets interesting.

© Copyright 2006 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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