Mexico’s Election to be Challenged in Court and on Streets

Mexico's centre-left presidential candidate Andres Manuel López Obrador has announced that he will not accept the results of Sunday’s election as they stand. Alleging errors (if not fraud), he said the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE, by its Spanish initials) shouldn’t have named his conservative rival, Felipe Calderón, the winner. He will appeal the result to the Federal Electoral Tribunal (TRIFE, as it is known), which legally has the final word. He’s also calling on his supporters to protest in the streets tomorrow, and it may be that the streets of Mexico’s cities have the final word politically.

According to the official count, 41 million voted on Sunday, Mr. Calderón won 35.89% and Mr. López Obrador won 35.31%. Officially, 243,934 votes separated the two candidates. Roberto Madrazo of the PRI, the party that traditionally stole Mexican elections for 70 years or so, garnered 22.28% of the vote. The remaining 6.55% going to smaller parties’ candidates. Since Mexico uses a first-past-the-post system of direct election, the winner lost almost two out of every three Mexican votes.

Compromise is not in the cards at this stage. Mr. López Obrador said of Mr. Calderón, “He should be ashamed of himself for proclaiming himself a winner. He cannot aspire to be president of this country without moral authority.” He also said, “We are going to impugn the election. We cannot accept the results. This is a serious matter. It cannot be resolved saying, ‘I won,’ and offering apologies.” He is demanding a recount of each and every vote.

IFE President Luis Carlos Ugalde has rejected the “count every vote” demand because he says Mexican electoral law doesn’t permit it. Ballot boxes can only be opened if there is evidence of tampering, meaning that if they got stuffed before they were sealed, the fraud succeeds. Mr. López Obrador has objected, “There was no democratic willingness, neither of the government nor the candidate from the right, and there are many doubts about the actions of IFE.”

So, what happens when hundred of thousands of Mexicans take to the streets tomorrow? And what happens when the votes aren’t all counted because the law doesn’t permit it? Or what happens if they are all counted in violation of the law? And what then happens when Mr. Calderón is confirmed as the winner under a cloud of suspicion? Or what happens when the election is overturned in favor of Mr. López Obrador after massive street protests, giving the appearance of intimidation? There are no happy endings so long as those question remain.

© Copyright 2006 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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