Israeli Ground Forces Enter Lebanon, But Can They Leave?

The media announced last night that the Israeli Defense Forces have sent ground troops into Lebanon in pursuit of Hezbollah guerrillas. This follows reports that IDF soldiers have also entered a refugee camp in Gaza. The need for ground forces is clear to anyone who understands the limits of airpower (in other words, those outside the US government). Hezbollah can only be broken on the ground. Once the IDF achieves that, however, it can only exit Lebanon by leaving the very same kind of vacuum that allowed Hezbollah to achieve a state-within-a-state in the first place, or worse.

Because it is the only Lebanese militia that did not disarm after the “Cedar Revolution,” Hezbollah effectively denies sovereignty of the Lebanese government in places where its guerrillas are deployed. The Lebanese Army, 50-60,000 strong, could have forced Hezbollah to disarm, possibly, but Hezbollah could have also resisted, plunging the country into civil war (again). Bearing in mind that two members of the cabinet represent Hezbollah on the strength of its electoral support, that was never going to happen. And when the IDF does wipe out Hezbollah in Lebanon, the deployment of the Lebanese Army to Hezbollah friendly territory is likely to face resistance similar to that the Americans are experiencing in Iraq.

In addition, one must remember that the officer corps of the Lebanese Army, as well as its intelligence service, is heavily influenced and infiltrated by Syria. The withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon a few months ago did not mean the end of Syrian actions in Lebanon. It is conceivable that the Lebanese Army would accept logistical and other support from Syria in the aftermath of the bombing and firefights. In other words, turning the entire country over to the Lebanese Army could well increase Syrian influence in the country.

Alternatively, outside peacekeeping troops could fill the vacuum, an idea already kicked around at the UN and elsewhere. Logically, this is a fine idea. History teaches, though, that UN peacekeepers or other outside troops really only work when there is peace to keep in the first place. The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon has been in place since 1978, “to confirm Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, restore the international peace and security, and help the Lebanese Government restore its effective authority in the area,” according to its website. When Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982 to get the PLO out of the country, the UNIFIL forces weren’t even a speed bump for the tanks, nor are they this morning. To be effective, thousands upon thousands of foreign troops would be needed, and that starts to look and feel like another occupation.

So, local forces are unacceptable to Israel, and forces external to the region are unworkable. The internal Israeli debate will be whether by leaving Lebanon the country is undoing the “good” it did in attacking Hezbollah in the first place or whether by staying it provides its enemies with targets that are easy to hit. Israel is right back where it was in April 2000, occupying parts of Lebanon with no good options for getting out.

© Copyright 2006 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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