Cease Fire in Lebanon Reveals Little Positive Political Change

As of this morning, the Israelis and Hezbollah are not shooting at each other. It’s the first time in about a month that that has been the case. A dispassionate assessment of the results of the fighting shows losses all around, some more significant than others, but no victor insight. How every Middle Eastern.

Those with long-term memory will recall that the shooting started when Hezbollah attacked and killed 8 Israeli troops and captured 2 more. Hezbollah, it seems, wanted to hold a couple hostages to negotiate the release of prisoners held by the Israelis. Israel launched its attack, ostensibly, to get those two men back. After 34 days of killing each other, neither side managed to free a single captive. "Inept" only begins to describe this part of the war.

Hezbollah comes out of the fight with enhanced prestige in the Muslim world, but with a damn sight fewer troops, and with severely disrupted supply lines. Having launched hundreds of missiles, it needs to re-supply, and it is doubtful if Syria and Iran can now get it the materiel it needs. Moreover, its schools, hospitals and other social welfare projects have taken a beating and will not get the resources needed to restore services any time soon.

Israel ends its month-long war with a government that proved it can and will fight – badly. In 1982, the Israeli Defense Force ran through Lebanon, reaching the Litani River 5 hours after Colonel Eli Geva's 211th Brigade crossed the border. This time, the government relied on airpower, and got nowhere for days on end. Hezbollah stood up to the Israelis only because bombing guerrillas is tactically stupid; it doesn’t work. Ask the Viet Cong.

Lebanon, of course, lost. It lost people, it lost infrastructure, and its government lost credibility. It couldn't stop the Israelis, but Hezbollah, in the eyes of some, did. So, is it even a legitimate government anymore? Beirut is supposed to send 15,000 troops into the south of the country. Can it? Will those troops side with Hezbollah if push comes to shove? And how many Lebanese now back Hezbollah who didn't before? Lebanon needs to be rebuilt, and it wouldn't be unreasonable for the government to demand reparation of both Israel and Hezbollah -- collecting would be another matter.

Meanwhile, the US, Iran and Syria all come out of this looking like cowards, prepared to let others do their fighting and dying for them. The US, deciding to let the IDF pursue its ineffective strategy and tactics, lost what little respect it had in the Muslim world – even the government the US military is propping up in Baghdad condemned the Israelis. Syria and Iran do get to bask in the reflected glory of Hezbollah’s successful resistance, but both regimes may have unleashed a movement they cannot control. A religious militia movement that answers to no one in particular isn’t good news, even for the mullahs in Tehran. Just because someone is a Shi’ite fanatic prepared to die for his faith doesn’t mean he or she is Iran’s Shi’ite fanatic. The whole thing was a waste of time, money, munitions, and of course, lives. Again.

© Copyright 2006 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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