Tories Have 9 Point Lead over Blair’s Labour

David Cameron, the new Conservative Party leader in the UK, is a toff, but he seems to be a very effective toff. With the Labour government flailing and failing, he has managed to rebrand the nasty party into a credible alternative to Mr. Blair’s mob. According to a Guardian/ICM poll published yesterday, the Tories lead Labour 40% to 31% with the Liberal Democrats rising 5% to 22%. If an election were held now, with Labour's support at 19-year lows, Mr. Cameron would have a 10 seat majority in the House of Commons.

What comes as the greatest shock is the timing of the poll. ICM interviewed a random sample of 1,007 adults over 18 by telephone on August 18-20, after the London airline bomb plot was uncovered. Home Secretary John Reid appeared all over the world media as the guy who saved the planes, but not a shred of that translated into support for Labour.

The reason for that is a loss of trust that was once Tony Blair’s biggest asset. Only one in five Brits believe their government is honest about the terror threat Britain faces, and among Labour voters, that only rises to one in four. Just as many, 21%, think the threat has been exaggerated. In all, 51% of those polled “say the government is not giving the full truth and may be telling less than it knows,” according to the Guardian.

When it comes to Iraq, the British electorate has never backed the government in any numbers. When asked, “do you think that government policies such as backing for action in Iraq and Afghanistan have made this country more of a target for terrorists, less of a target, or have they made no difference one way or the other?” 72% said more likely, and 1% (one percent) say the UK is safer.

However, simply having an unpopular government isn’t enough for an opposition takeover at the next election. Mr. Cameron’s success is in re-engaging disaffected voters, the people who vote Tory most of the time but who stayed home last election. The Guardian finds, “One indication is that voters who failed to turn out in 2005 now say they intend to back Mr Cameron's party next time. That reverses a long-standing trend that saw Labour become the natural option for uncertain voters. Conservative and Lib Dem supporters are also more likely to say they intend to vote at the next election than Labour supporters.” If the polls hold, and if the Liberal Democrats engage in tactical voting in marginal constituencies, Chancellor Gordon Brown won’t be the next Prime Minister, but rather the leader of the opposition. Mr. Blair is certain to retire before taking on that job.

© Copyright 2006 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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