Lula Forced into Re-Election Run-Off

The re-election of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva took a twist in Sunday’s voting. He came up a couple percentage points shy of an absolute majority. Under the Brazilian constitution, that means he has to fight a run-off ballot with the second place finisher, former São Paulo governor Geraldo Alckmin, who won 41.4% of the vote. The next round of voting occurs on October 29th, and the result is not entirely a foregone conclusion.

Lula, as his is affectionately known by his supporters, probably should have won outright, but his people made a few last minute mistakes. His campaign clumsily tried to smear José Serra, who just won the governor’s job in São Paulo state for the opposition Party of Brazilian Social Democracy. This forced the chief campaign operative of Mr. da Silva’s Workers’ Party to resign right before the election. Also, the president skipped a TV debate in the last days, which never looks good.

In his four years as president, Mr. da Silva has lowered inflation, boosted employment and has spent on transfer payments to Brazil’s numerous poor. Unfortunately, his nation’s growth rate isn’t quite what some of its peers enjoy: China is growing at 11% or so, India at 9%, and Russia at 7%, while Brazil is struggling to exceed 2% growth. He has, however, been a pragmatic leftist in major contrast to Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, a wannabe Castro at best.

Mr. Alckmin has a decent record as governor of Brazil’s most populous state. He cut taxes while increasing investment, and Brazil does suffer from high taxes and interest rates. Some believe his approach would work nationally. Unfortunately, 90% of the nation’s federal spending is non-discretionary. Some big apple carts will have to be upset to fix this. Moreover, Mr. Alckmin has a weak record on gang violence; on his watch, the Primeiro Comando da Capital gang took over prisons and terrorized São Paulo for better jail conditions.

Still, the second round appears to be Mr. da Silva’s to lose. Picking up a couple percent from those who voted for second-tier candidates shouldn’t prove difficult. The question is, what does he do with a second term? The manifesto he has put out is vague, according to those who have read it through. His national pact for “sustainable development” sounds like something only a man who can’t run again would try. Since the constitution prevents him from a third term in 2010, big changes could loom in Brazil if Mr. da Silva wants a legacy beyond serving twice.

© Copyright 2006 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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