Reloading

18 December 2006



Opposition Gains in Iran Local Elections

The old joke from the 1980s had it that a moderate Iranian was one who was simply reloading. If that holds true, it would seem the reloaders have struck back at the automatic-firing crowd of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Moderate candidates have taken the lead in the early returns for the election held on Friday. Out of the 15 seats on the Tehran City Council, four of the first five appear to have gone against the president, who was once mayor of the capital. Moreover, his rival Ali Akbar Hasehmi Rafsanjani was elected to the Assembly of Experts with about twice the votes the president’s mentor Ayatollah Mohammad-Taghi Mesba Yazdi garnered.

Iran is a theocracy with trappings of democracy. There are contested elections, and if a candidate passes the orthodoxy tests (that is if the mullahs allow it), he or she can challenge those in power at the ballot box. Yes, “she.” The president’s sister Parvin Ahmadinejad put herself forward for Tehran’s City Council running on the list of the “Pleasant Scent of Service.” One imagines it smells as much as any other political party. She’s 11th on their list, meaning that they would have to win 11 seats of the 15 for her to be elected. Still, they did let her run.

More important than the capital’s city council is the Assembly of Experts. This is an 86-member body of theologians that can replace the Supreme Leader ( Velayat-e faqih), top theologian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who otherwise serves for life. With more power than the Queen of England, but with less than Josef Stalin, the Supreme Leader sets the boundaries for Iranian society. Clearly, the more “liberal” the Assembly of Experts is, the more like the next Supreme Leader will be “liberal.”

The question now is why did the president’s party and the mullahs for whom he is a frontman do so poorly? There’s unemployment, rising prices, and an uncertain future. The entire nuke program is less to actually create The Bomb (although it would come in handy) than it is to continue confronting the US (the Great Satan). An external threat keeps internal unity strong out of fear, as Mr. Orwell warned.

Outside Iran, this shift means little in the near term. One cleric robbing the poor through the manipulation of sacred texts and ignorance looks much like every other criminal priest. The mullahs will continue to own much of the economy; they brought down the Shah when he threatened their commercial interests, so they have no qualms about doing what they must to ensure they retain control there. The real changes will be seen 10 or 20 years from now. When today’s university students begin to lead Iran, the conditions of their youth will color their actions as adults. A little more freedom is always better than a little less.

© Copyright 2006 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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