Predictions for 2006 Weren’t Very Visionary

As 2005 ended, the Kensington Review made some predictions about this year. Having made 11 forecasts for 2005 and having got 9 right, one felt rather smug. Not so this year, as the record is a rather paltry, and indeed humbling, 6 out of 11 right.

• “Robert Mugabe will remain as dictator of Zimbabwe on December 31, 2006 unless he drops dead.” Sadly, he didn’t do the right thing and go off to his eternal reward.
• “US troop levels in Iraq will not fall below 100,000 at year-end.” Indeed, the president thinks a surge beyond 150,000 is quite a good plan.
• “Karl Rove will be indicted by Special Prosecutor Fitzgerald.” Close. “Scooter” Libby has been indicted, but Mr. Rove was not.
• “The Republican Party will not lose control of the US Senate or the House of Representatives in the November 2006 elections.” One is still trying to figure our how they made such a pig’s breakfast of such a commanding position in just 11 months’ time.
• “Human-to-human transmission of the avian flu (H5N1) will remain virtually impossible as the virus won’t evolve that way.” No hysterical press stories even.
• “The Patriot Act will be renewed with some small safeguards for civil liberties.” Emphasis on “small.”
• “There will not be an Al Qaeda attack on US soil in 2006.” Simply, it is too hard to pull off. Iraq-Nam is much easier territory from which to operate.
• “The US will reach the quarterfinals of the soccer World Cup, but England’s Wayne Rooney (Liverpool) will have everyone asking ‘Why can’t Beckham do that?’ (That bit about Rooney isn’t really a prediction – anyone who’s seen him play is already asking that question).” Not only did the US disappoint, but Mr. Rooney broke a foot right before the tournament and was barely able to play.
• “Bloc Quebecois will take over 60 seats in the Canadian election in January (the Bloc has 54 going into the election), and Quebec sovereignty will rear its ugly head.” Nope, the Tories revived in Quebec, and the Quebecois nationalists lost seats. However, the government did stupidly pass a resolution saying the Quebecois were a separate nation within a united Canada, so sovereignty survives as an issue.
• “Broadway theatre box office will exceed $900 million in 2006.” Unofficially, it seems to have done so.
• “Toyota will become the world’s largest car manufacturer, surpassing General Motors.” Analysts now say it will happen in first quarter 2007.