Ethiopia Helps Somalia Kick Out Fascislamic Forces

Back in June, this journal wrote of the collapse of Somalia’s military in the face of the Islamic Courts Union jihadis. Sharia law was imposed and Al Qaeda’s pals were in control. Much better news arrived this week with the ouster of the jihadis by Somali and Ethiopian troops. Kenya has sealed its Somali border with tanks and troops, and the US has war ships off the coast providing support. Now, comes the hard part, preventing an Iraq-Nam style insurgency.

Somali Interior Minister Hussein Aideed, told a press conference yesterday, “There are 3,500 Islamists hiding in Mogadishu and the surrounding areas and they are likely to destabilize the security of the city.” Another 600 are hiding along the Kenyan border. Interim Prime Minister Ali Mohammed Ghedi set a deadline of yesterday for citizens to hand over their firearms. The BBC states that in Mogadishu alone, a city of 2 million, there are 1 million guns of various sorts. Moreover, the Somali government has only 10,000 men under arms, and Ethiopia has added 8,000 to 15,000 of its troops to the effort. Not enough troops, too many weapons readily available, militant resistance – sound familiar?

While the Islamic Courts Union says it has retreated for strategic reasons, it has even lost its stronghold of Kismayo in the south. That doesn’t mean the war is over. The BBC further reports, “The head of the Islamic movement in the Kismayo region said, ‘Even if we are defeated we will start an insurgency. We will kill every Somali that supports the government and Ethiopians’.”

The Islamic Courts Union shot its way into Mogadishu because the transitional government of Somalia was not popular in the capital and couldn’t provide any security anywhere in the country. The jihadis brought order to the chaos, and they filled the power vacuum. Now that they have been defeated, the vacuum is returning.

The African Union may send 8,000 or so troops, and Uganda has pledged 1,000 of them. They won’t be enough, and Ethiopia may decide its self-interest no longer is served with further participation in its neighbor’s civil war. Ethiopia is about evenly divided between Muslims and Orthodox Christians, who thus far get along just fine. If that changes, Addis Ababa has no interest in staying on. The government needs to cut a deal with the traditional clan leaders to keep things from getting any worse. Crossing fingers wouldn't hurt either.

© Copyright 2007 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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