World Scientific Body Says Global Warming is Mankind’s Fault

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has reported that global warming is “very likely” the result of human activity. In a major break with the past, a Bush-administration scientist signed on to this conclusion, when heretofore, the White House denied global warming even existed. Indeed, co-lead author Dr. Susan Soloman, an American, said, “We can be very confident that the net effect of human activity since 1750 has been one of warming.” Now that the debate is truly over, the question becomes what to do about it.

The first thing to determine is just what can be done. The unpleasant fact is there is very little that can be done right away that will have any immediate effect. “For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected for a range of SRES [Special Report on Emissions Scenarios] emission scenarios. Even if the concentrations of all greenhouse gases and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1°C per decade would be expected.” So, any policy must focus on two factors: ameliorating the short-term effects and working to reverse the long-term future deterioration of the situation. In simple terms, the human race needs to figure out how to cope with the inevitability of a warmer planet while, at the same time, working to minimize the damage that is going to occur.

By definition, humans have adapted to every ecosystem they inhabit. Locally, things are going to change which means further adaptation is necessary. For example, places like Bangladesh are going to flood. The future of Asia, and hence the world, is likely to hinge on how the rest of the world helps, or fails to help, millions of displaced Muslims who are, at present, not radicalized. Farms in various parts of the world are going to fail unless they grow different crops, and new land may even become arable. Change is messy, but a world community acting with some foresight can prevent the resource wars the pessimists believe are on the way. However, the world doesn’t seem to have started looking at this myriad of problems, let alone addressed any solutions.

In slowing the deterioration, the Kyoto Protocol is an example of a flawed attempt. By permitting large underdeveloped economies to do as they wish, the diplomats have rendered much of their work pointless. Nonetheless, the Bush administration’s rejection of Kyoto merely ensures that First World green houses gases continue to heat the world along with Third World greenhouse gases. A grand, holistic effort is doomed to fail, though, because some political leaders will inevitably hold the environment hostage to local, short-term concerns. A weak, partial solution is better than none, and dozens of them in combination add up to a decent result.

The important thing to remember is that this catastrophe will likely be played out over decades, even centuries. Unlike an asteroid impact that changes the global climate rapidly, and thus denying numerous species the change to adapt, this problem is a slow-motion crisis that allows some wiggle room. It requires realism, it requires pan-global cooperation, and it requires sacrifice. Above all, it demands that the human race quit worrying about whether global warming is happening and about whether there is some way to avoid it. It’s here, and it’s too late to get out of cleaning up the mess. This is not a problem that will be solved; at best, it is a problem that can be managed.

© Copyright 2007 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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