Ukrainian President Dissolves Parliament in Deepening Confrontation

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko dissolved parliament earlier this week and called for new elections. Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, who lost the presidential election in 2004 after winning it in a rigged ballot that brought on the “Orange Revolution,” claims that the president is violating the constitution in doing so. Mr. Yushchenko maintains that it is the Prime Minister who is undoing the constitution. The confrontation is unlikely to be resolved any time soon. On the other hand, it is unlikely to lead to violence either.

Many analysts have viewed this episode as a continuation of the clash between the pro-western president and the pro-Russian PM. This is only true to a degree. For example, when some of the eastern parts of the country tried to make Russian a second official language, Mr. Yanukovych stopped it from happening – despite a manifesto pledge to upgrade the status of Russian (granted the difference between Russian and Ukrainian is rather thin).

This dispute is about something much more fundamental. It is about power. Mr. Yushchenko is, not to put too fine a point on it, not happy with the diminution of presidential powers as a result of the Orange Revolution that made him president. This increased the powers of the parliament (the Supreme Rada), and Mr. Yanukovych has assembled a majority there. In addition, he has been soliciting individual members of parliament to join his coalition. The president maintains that that is unconstitutional because only blocs of MPs can enter or withdraw from a coalition according to the nation’s constitution.

Currently, the Prime Minister can count on 250 MPs out of the 450 Rada members. Were he to assemble a bloc of 300, he would be able to override any presidential veto. In effect, if he gets to 300, he becomes the leader of Ukraine, thereby achieving what the Orange Revolution denied him. Mr. Yushchenko can count as easily as this journal can, and he has pre-empted the move by calling the snap-election.

There will be street protests, and more than a few nasty speeches, but the people of Ukraine are likely to go through the process of new elections before anything else occurs. In all likelihood, Mr. Yanukovych will wind up with the largest bloc again, in which case, the crisis moves to a new chapter. The only alternative would be a victory for Yulia Tymoshenko, Mr. Yushchenko’s ally from the Orange Revolution and former PM. The trouble is he sacked her for what can only be termed incompetence. Their relationship is doubtful at best. This story bears watching for weeks if not months to come.

© Copyright 2007 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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