Giuliani, McCain to Skip Iowa Straw Poll

Wednesday, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani announced that he wouldn’t participate in the August 11 straw poll in Iowa. Shortly afterward, Arizona’s Senator John McCain made a similar announcement. Since the two are already well-established front-runners, and since Iowa won’t play the crucial role it usually does (so many states have moved their contests to February 2008), neither man loses much by sitting it out. By the same token, they both avoid the possible embarrassment of finishing third, or worse.

Thomas Beaufort, a staff reporter for the under-rated Des Moines Register, reported yesterday, “The straw poll is a fundraiser for the Iowa Republican Party, which is responsible for putting on the caucuses. The party says it will raise enough to put on the caucuses. In the straw poll’s 30-year history, no Republican caucus winner has bypassed the early contest. With some exceptions, most straw poll winners have gone on to clinch the caucuses.” It’s the first chance for voters to express an opinion in a contest that actually counts toward delegate selection.

For Mr. Giuliani, Iowa is something of a problem. Caucuses require heavy grassroots organization; one doesn’t win with TV only. He hasn’t built himself much of an Iowa machine, and losing in Iowa would raise all kinds of questions. By not participating, he is “dissing” Iowa, but it is hard to see how that hurts him since he wasn’t likely to get many delegates there anyway. Besides, the caucuses are January 14, 2008, and California’s primary is February 5. California’s race is winner-take-all, based on district and statewide. Losing California hurts a lot more than losing Iowa, and there isn’t any real time between them. Winning Iowa could help a second-tier candidate (Tommy Thompson comes to mind), but not “America’s Mayor.” He would merely meet expectations.

With Mr. Giuliani out of the race, Mr. McCain was in a position to take on Mitt Romney head-to-head. That’s the last thing he needs at this point. Winning the Iowa straw poll doesn’t make Mr. McCain a front-runner any more than he already is, but not beating Mr. Romney puts up all kinds of flags. By bowing out, he concedes the straw poll without the onus of being the guy who made it pointless – that’s Mr. Giuliani.

The straw poll (so named because it let’s one see which way the wind is blowing) will almost certainly go for Mr. Romney, and it will be a hollow victory. The significance, beyond raising money for the Iowa GOP, will lie in who finishes second and third. If the Giuliani and McCain camps finish second or third without trying, they look tough to beat. If another candidate scores well, it could be the break-through a second-tier candidate needs to become a contender (and who decides these things, anyway? Clowns in the media who don’t know politics is about power, not popularity?) What’s annoying is the election is still 516 days away.

© Copyright 2007 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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