A La Droit

18 June 2007



France Gives Sarkozy Smaller Majority

The French electorate gave President Nicolas Sarkozy a majority in the House of Deputies in yesterday’s election. A “blue tsunami” had been predicted (in Europe, the conservatives are blue, the socialists are red – much more historically accurate than America’s color-codes for Democrats and Republicans). Instead, Mr. Sarkozy’s Union pour un Mouvement Populaire [UMP] and its allies on the right hold fewer seats than the UMP on its own in the last parliament. Meanwhile, the Socialists earned 226 seats, compared to 149 in the last parliament. The voters clearly want a move to the right, but not too far.

Turnout was a bit low for France at 60%, but the parliamentary election comes on the heels of the presidential ballot just a few weeks ago where almost 85% of the registered voters turned up. With the polls all suggesting big leads for the right, a bit of complacency may have crept into the UMP camp. Meanwhile, the Socialists were energized to keep the losses to a minimum after a poor showing in the first round of voting for deputies.

Be that as it may, Mr. Sarkozy has the votes to move France as he chooses. To get more work out of labor, he wants to exempt overtime (above 35 hours) from taxes and social security charges. In an attempt to bring law and order to France (perceptions are running far worse than facts), he wants minimum sentences for repeat offenders as well as tougher sentences for juveniles. In immigration policy, he wants a system that favors qualified workers rather than family ties. To boost health care (France already has the best health system in the world according to the World Health Organization) he wants to raise the value-added-tax (yes, people on the right in Europe will raise taxes to pay for things – it’s called fiscal responsibility). He also wants to raise taxes on polluters, not so much to raise money but to discourage environmental damage. With regard to the EU, he opposes Turkish membership.

Given the arithmetic in the Chamber of Deputies, all of this is likely to come to pass. Nevertheless, there will be bumps along the way, and the UMP has already hit one. Having appointee Francois Fillon as Prime Minister, Mr. Sarkozy started to move before the elections. When Alain Juppe, the former prime minister and Minister of State, as well as for Energy, Ecology and Sustainable Development until this morning, lost his seat in Bordeaux, a reshuffle became necessary. Any cabinet minister who didn’t keep his or her seat had to resign.

Some pundits are convinced that the decline in rightist seats means the French are hesitant in their appetite for reform. Le Figaro, a paper of the right, opined this morning, “If the French have been won over by the idea of reform, they are not ready to accept what has not been fully thought through.” Others are not so certain. UMP Secretary General Patrick Devedjian said, “I have a scoop for you, an event that has gone completely unnoticed -- we won.” Although Mr. Devedjian has a dog in the fight, one tends to take his view. At the end of the day what matters is marching the deputies through the division lobbies, and there are more on the right than there are on the left.

© Copyright 2007 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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