Bhutto Says Musharraf Must Go

Former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto has said General President Pervez Musharraf must resign, and she ruled out serving as PM if he remains in power. She added that her party is likely to boycott the parliamentary elections that Mr. Musharraf has put off to at least January and that she wants to forge a political alliance with former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, a rival of hers. All of this appears to stem from being placed under house arrest to prevent her from demonstrating against the regime. It appears both Mrs. Bhutto and General President Musharraf have overplayed their rather weak hands.

When Mrs. Bhutto returned to Pakistan, it appeared that there was a deal between her and Mr. Musharraf. Corruption charges against her and her family got quashed, and it seemed that she was prepared to give some democratic cover to the military regime. It appears that the deal was short-lived, if indeed, it ever really existed at all.

Now, there are three sides in this whole mess. There is the military, which has run Pakistan since independence or has tolerated civilian rule because it was easier. It is the only institution in the country that seems to be able to manage itself, and it has vast resources (including billions of aid from America). There is the civilian opposition, which more a convenient category than a real political faction. They are united in one thing and that is getting the military to go back to barracks. And then, there are the Fascislamists, the fellow travelers of Al-Qaeda, the people who want to make Pakistan a shining example of 10th Century glory.

Clearly, the military has all the tangible advantages, including more firepower than anybody else. In a fight between the troops and the backers of people like Mrs. Bhutto, there is no fight. The civilians will be crushed, as historically, they always have been in Pakistan. It may not, however, come to that. Mr. Musharraf doesn’t have much of a hand to play either. He hasn’t won any friends in the Bush administration by crushing democracy in Pakistan – the Busheviks take their commitment to democracy and freedom very seriously (except in the US, where security is their trump card). He may have to stand aside for a different general, whether he wants to or not. Mrs. Bhutto may be holding a pair of threes, but personally, Mr. Musharraf is looking at a busted flush, while the military as an institution has a couple of jacks.

Meanwhile in the mountains of Waziristan, the real problem festers. A great many members of the military and intelligence services of Pakistan are sympathetic to the raging fanatics. Even if they weren't and if they chose to prosecute a war against them, the government’s forces would be hard pressed to completely defeat the Fascislamists. And failure to win that fight only serves to strengthen the madmen. It’s a bit like the Tsar and Mr. Kerensky arguing over Russian democracy while Lenin has boarded the train from Switzerland. Something bad is coming, and no one is paying much attention to the real problem. The side bet, and the crucial question, is just what cards are they holding in the mountains along the Afghan-Pakistani border?

© Copyright 2007 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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