Obama, Huckabee Win in Iowa

The Iowa caucus-circus played itself out last night with triumphs for Governor Mike Huckabee on the Republican side and Senator Barack Obama on the Democratic side. The campaigns began spinning the results before the clock struck 10 in Des Moines, but CNN’s political analyst Bill Schneider said it best, “this was a debate between change and experience, and change won.”

For the GOP, the result doesn’t really clarify anything. Governor Huckabee won 34% of the vote with a great deal of support from Christian evangelical reactionaries. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts did well enough to finish second, but trailed by a rather embarrassing 9 percentage points. Fred Thompson of Tennessee, who has been slammed for being lazy and half-hearted, finished third at 13% -- meaning he may still have some life in his effort. John McCain didn’t campaign in Iowa at all really and finished almost even with Senator Thompson. Texan Ron Paul’s 10% suggests his support is deeper than it is broad, but he’s got money so he’s still in it. New York’s former mayor, Rudy Giuliani, didn’t campaign as he is setting up for Florida and garnered an irrelevant 4%. Californian Duncan Hunter earned 1% and is the only man who really has no future hopes in the race.

Among the Democrats, Illinois Senator Barack Obama took 38% of the vote, North Carolina’s John Edwards got 30%, New York Senator Hillary Clinton won 29%, New Mexico’s Governor Bill Richardson came a very distant fourth at 2%. Senators Chris Dodd of Connecticut and Joe Biden of Delaware were at about 1% and have both withdrawn from the race. Congressman Dennis Kucinich of Ohio and Alaska’s Mike Gravel didn’t really campaign in the state.

Mr. Schneider’s comment suggests that the Iowa electorate is really sick and tired of politicians who lead by focus group. Or more accurately, they’re tired of politicians who appear to lead by focus group. Moreover, they don’t like the party apparatchiks in either faction. While Messrs. Huckabee and Obama talk about being agents of change, they aren’t very specific about what they’re going to change and how. The voters didn’t much care – they are voting against the status quo, and they’ll worry about what replaces it later.

The press is full of speculation about what the result among Democrats means for Mrs. Clinton. The fact is she has $100 million or so to spend, and she remains the darling of the Democratic Leadership Council as well as a lot of elected officials. She will be in it until she is mathematically eliminated. That said, the big selling point all along was that she was the inevitable nominee. That doesn’t square well with losing, let alone coming in third. Mrs. Clinton is snake-bit, and it’s hard to see how she can reclaim her mantle of invincibility. Now, she has to come up with another rationale for running, and New Hampshire’s primary is 4 days away.

© Copyright 2008 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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