McCain, Clinton Win in New Hampshire

The people of New Hampshire have an undue amount of influence in the presidential nominating process due to the early date of their primary. They like to use that influence to confuse the pundits, and last night, they did just that. On the Republican side, they selected John McCain as their top choice, a man whose campaign just three months ago was on life-support. On the Democratic side, they chose Hillary Clinton by a couple of percentage points over Barack Obama despite polls in the state giving Mr. Obama a 10% lead. However, the real news is just how bad things are for the Republicans based on the voting in New Hampshire.

John McCain did well in New Hampshire back in 2000, beating Governor George W. Bush. His maverick streak, experience and his war record play well in the Granite State. Governor Mitt Romney of neighboring Massachusetts was supposed to have been a favorite son winner, but as he noted, “another silver” not a gold medal. Governor Huckabee of Arkansas came third, and his eyes move hungrily to Baptist South Carolina now. Nevertheless, in the delegate race, Mr. Romney is first with 24, Mr. Huckabee is second with 19, and Mr. McCain is third with 10. It will take 1,191 to get the nomination.

Mrs. Clinton somehow reconnected with women voters in New Hampshire. Whether it was tearing up in a diner or simply having a good get-out-the-vote operation is hard to say. What is intriguing is the polls over the week-end had her campaign braced for a crushing defeat. Instead, Mr. Obama came up short, but Senator John Edwards’s 17% must have been a disappointment as it largely relegated him to an also-ran position rather than that of a contender. In the delegate count, Mr. Obama leads with 25, just one more than Mrs. Clinton, and Mr. Edwards has 18. The number needed to secure the nomination is 2,025.

The real story, though, is in the relative strength of each party in the state. According to the September 12 primary voter checklist on the Secretary of State's Web site, 26 % of New Hampshire voters are registered as Democrats, 31% as Republican and 43% are undeclared. Those undeclared can vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary simply by showing up at their designated polling place and asking for the appropriate ballot. Yesterday, the Secretary of State’s office had to courier extra ballots (mostly Democratic forms) to several locations to meet demand.

With about 98% of the votes counted, over 282,000 voters cast a ballot in the Democratic primary and almost 231,000 in the Republican, a margin of over 50,000 or around 10%. Given that the GOP has a 5% advantage in registration (and the state has gone Republican in 11 of the 15 presidential elections since World War II), that 10% Democratic advantage represents an enormous swing. Now, the November match-ups will likely effect that, and 10 months is an eternity in politics. However, if New Hampshire is this excited about the Democrats, the GOP is in for a very bad general election.

© Copyright 2008 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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