Romney Wins Michigan Primary

Former Governor George Romney’s boy Mitt won the Michigan Primary yesterday, folks there voting for a guy who grew up in the Wolverine State. With 39% of the vote, he expanded his lead in delegates, which the media still hasn’t explained is the only thing that matters. John McCain finished second with 30%, and the GOP race remains wide open.

Michigan’s system is an open primary in which any voter can back a candidate in either the GOP or Democratic race. The Democratic primary was a farce -- Senators Edwards and Obama had withdrawn their names from the ballot and the Democratic National Committee had stripped Michigan of all its national convention delegates for moving its primary into January. As a result, many Dems could have played the mischief card and voted in the Republican race. Independents could have made the difference for Senator John McCain.

In the end, turnout was weak because of the weather (January in Michigan isn’t the time to venture out), and as a result, independents were only 25% of those voting (in 2000, when Mr. McCain won Michigan, they were 35%). Mr. Romney also benefited from his father’s legacy. Some 41% of voters said his ties to the state made a difference in how they voted.

What was laughable was the punditocracy’s insistence that a loss for Mr. Romney would have spelled the end of his campaign. He’s a multimillionaire, so he isn’t going to run out of money. Moreover, he already won in Wyoming, so he could justly claim he’d taken a “gold.” This victory is something the media and talking heads discounted because they were too invested in the New Hampshire primary that followed a few days later. Above all, he’s leading in delegates with 42 of the 1,191 needed to be nominated (Governor Huckabee is second at 22, and Senator McCain is third at 19). Read that again – Mr. Romney is winning, and was winning even before Michigan.

In Saturday’s Nevada caucuses, the state will select 31 delegates. There are 174,000 of Mr. Romney’s Mormon co-religionists in that state. In contrast, the South Carolina primary held the same day (at least that’s when the GOP votes; the Dems’ balloting happens a week later) will choose just 24 delegates. Mr. Romney must be favored in Nevada not in South Carolina. This means no clear momentum for the media to talk about as the Florida primary approaches. However, Mr. Romney may well increase his lead in delegates, which is how one must really keep score.

© Copyright 2008 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

Kensington Review Home