Media Miss Obama's Nevada Win

The Democratic Caucus in Nevada on Saturday was a victory for Senator Barack Obama of Illinois. Quite why the media is claiming a victory for Hillary Clinton is unclear, but what is clear is that they are wrong. The nominee will be the candidate who marches most of the national convention delegates through the division lobby. By that measure, Mrs. Clinton lost in Nevada as Senator Obama took one delegate more than she did.

Of course in a pure democracy, the winner would be the candidate who got the most votes. Mrs. Clinton, by that measure, did carry Nevada. Then again, Al Gore beat George Bush in 2000, but he didn't get to live in the White House (and the world is much worse off for it). But that isn't how the party is going to nominate its leader.

The Obama campaign is still leading, and that is another fact that the US media ignore. Setting aside the super delegates (that is the elected bigshots in the Democratic Party who are going to the convention because they are elected bigshots), Senator Obama has 38 delegates pledged to support him. Senator Clinton has just 36 and Senator John Edwards has 18. Given that it takes 2,025 to choose a nominee, the race hasn't really begun yet.

When the super delegates are included, Mrs. Clinton leads Senator Obama 210 to 123 with Senator Edwaerds following at 52. This support is pretty soft, though, based merely on endorsements. If the wind really starts blowing one particular direction, those super delegates will shift in a heart beat.

What is fascinating is the talk of momentum and “winning” a state that hasn't got 1% of the delegates needed to become the nominee. The media are focused entirely on the wrong measures, and no one seems to be calling them on it. There will be more of this nonsense on Saturday when South Carolina votes and selects fewer delegates than Nevada did. The real fight is February 5, and even then, a majority of delegates will not have been selected.

© Copyright 2008 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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