Florida Puts McCain up, Rudy and Edwards Out

The Florida primary yesterday clarified a number of things in both parties. In the Republican race, John McCain’s 5 percent victory margin over Mitt Romney has the press touting him as front-runner. Meanwhile, Rudy Giuliani’s distant third at 15% has finished him off. Reports are he’s quitting today and throwing his weight behind Senator McCain. On the Democratic side, no delegates were awarded to Hillary Clinton despite winning 50% of the vote. Senator Obama’s third of the vote seems to have convinced John Edwards that there is no room in the campaign for him; media reports are that he’s quitting, too.

The rise of John McCain and the support he’s going to receive from Mayor Giuliani means that the “national security” Republicans have finally united under one banner. The social conservatives remain split, albeit unevenly, between Governor Romney and Mike Huckabee. The odds are that this split persists, not because of any real ideological issues but because of theological ones. There is a segment of the evangelical vote that will not support a Mormon (Mr. Romney) under any circumstances. This must favor Senator McCain.

The campaign is about winning delegates to the national convention, and the GOP tends toward winner-take-all races. Thus, the 36% of the vote Mr. McCain won gave him all 57 of Florida’s delegates. He now leads with 98; Governor Romney has 59, Governor Huckabee has 26, and the other candidates have a smattering of the 1,191 needed to win this fight. On Tuesday, the GOP has 21 contests with 1,023 delegates at stake, most in winner-take-all situations.

That’s not to say Mr. Romney is out of the running at all. With virtually unlimited funds from his personal fortune, he’s financially stronger than Mr. McCain (until the credit card donations and bundled checks come in following last night’s win). Moreover, Mr. McCain had to trim back much of his campaign staff at the end of last year because of lack of funds. This may hurt him in caucus states and in general get-out-the-vote efforts.

Florida’s Democratic vote was pointless as the Democratic National Committee has stripped Florida (and Michigan) of its delegates for holding its vote ahead of February 5. Mrs. Clinton broke a promise not to campaign there, and she has already said she wants Florida’s delegates seated at the convention (where half can then vote for her). Expect Messrs. Edwards and Obama to fight that in the rules committee.

Sadly for John Edwards, there was not room for a second change candidate in the three-way race that the media insisted upon creating (truly, Bill Richardson is the most qualified Democrat in the party). Later today, he will run up the white flag not because he was wrong, but because there’s no point in wasting money on Super Tuesday. The question is will he back Barrack, Hillary or keep himself neutral?

© Copyright 2008 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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