Al Sadr Orders Mahdi Army Ceasefire to Continue

Back on August 29, in response to the increasing American troop deployments, Shi’ite leader Hojatoleslam Moqtada al-Sadr ordered his Madhi Army to observe a six-month ceasefire in Iraq-Nam. It was a brilliant strategic maneuver in that it allowed him to pose as a peacemaker, prevented the Americans from destroying his forces en masse, and yet it ensured that any Madhi leader who disobeyed was purged by the occupiers and not al Sadr. Yesterday, he announced that the ceasefire will extend for an indeterminate amount of time.

An al-Sadr spokesman, Salah al-Ubaidi, read a statement yesterday that Al-Jazeera translated as saying, “Any member of the Mahdi Army who conducts violent acts during the ceasefire, the Sadr office declares they will no longer be part of the Mahdi Army.” He also stated that the Madhi troopers should consider the ceasefire intact until told otherwise. The Hojatoleslam is keeping his powder dry.

Part of the calculation here is the possibility that the American troops draw down is going to “pause,” to borrow the White House’s term. Having fought against the Yanks twice, the Madhi Army has concluded that there is no reason to fight when they merely have to wait. Eventually, the Americans will have to leave because they are over-extended (“stressed” is the term to describe the US Army according to . . . the US Army). When the Green Zone government can no longer call upon 15 brigades of Americans, it will either have to negotiate with Hojatoleslam al-Sadr, or find other forces with which to fight him.

However, the Madhi Army has senior commanders who are growing tired of waiting. They are in the business of killing, and lately business hasn’t been all that good. Mr. al-Ubaidi stated that a committee of Sadrist legislators “don’t want the ceasefire to remain. They want it lifted because of oppressive acts by security forces in Diwaniya.” He was referring in part to “Operation Lion’s Leap” in which close to 600 people were arrested, and over half had to be released due to lack of evidence. Yet 75 others face the death penalty.

Washington is on the horns of a dilemma, largely of its own making. Thanks to the surge, the US military cannot maintain current troop levels, and may have difficulty keeping pre-surge levels in place. Yet if the withdrawal to fewer than 100,000 occurs, Hojatoleslam al-Sadr grows stronger. His men already hold half of Baghdad, and probably 80% of the Shi’ite neighborhoods. He could act when the six months are up, but in taking over a country, timing is everything. Unfortunately for Iraq-Nam, he appears to understand that perfectly.

© Copyright 2008 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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