Rock Bottom

11 February 2008



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Polls Suggest Musharraf Could Lose Pakistani Elections

A poll released earlier today in Pakistan suggests that President Musharraf’s crowd could lose next Monday’s parliamentary elections, and lose badly. Not only are voters there annoyed with his heavy-handed behavior, they are more than a bit upset about rising inflation, electrical shortages and increased violence. If the election were clean (and it won’t be), there is a chance the two opposition parties could form a “coalition of revenge” and impeach Mr. Musharraf.

The International Republican Institute, the nonprofit, US-based organization, conducted the poll. It found that 15% of Pakistanis approve of the job Mr. Musharraf is doing. In November, that figure was just above 30%. In contrast, the two main opposition parties get combined support of 72%. Two-thirds is needed in parliament to impeach the president.

C. Christine Fair, a senior political analyst at the Rand Corporation, told the Washington Post, “If a coalition of revenge gets a two-thirds majority, he’s done. Absolutely done.” Isobel Coleman of the Council on Foreign Relations agreed, “Even before Benazir's assassination there was a strong and growing feeling that Musharraf had run his course. People are generally fed up with him and with the state Pakistan is in right now.”

It remains the belief of the US government that the 66% impeachment threshold won’t be breached. In fact, official Washington expects a hung parliament. If this happens, it will be because the vote was rigged. The Pakistan People’s Party of the late Mrs. Bhutto gets 50% support in the IRI poll.

What worries most is what happens after the election. The risk is that the opposition will take to the streets if they believe seats were stolen from them. If that occurs, the army will have to step in. Whether they do so to support or to remove Mr. Musharraf is another matter.

© Copyright 2008 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.





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