Swept Again

13 February 2008



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Clinton, Huckabee Lose Three More

Dubbed by some marketing moron the “Potomac Primary,” the states of Virginia and Maryland along with the District of Columbia voted in presidential primaries yesterday. Again, Senator Barack Obama swept Senator Hillary Clinton on the Democratic side, while Senator John McCain beat Governor Mike Huckabee thrice on the Republican side. Now, it’s on to Hawaii, Wisconsin and for the GOP Washington State and the territory of Guam for more of the same.

On the Republican side, things are the clearest thanks to a mostly winner-take-all primacy system. Mr. McCain is 379 delegates away from the 1,191 he needs to win the nomination. Mathematically, he can’t lock things up until the Pennsylvania Primary on April 22. However, if Mr. Huckabee were to win every remaining delegate available, he still wouldn’t get to 1,191. It is merely a matter of time before Mr. McCain can claim victory.

For the Democrats and their proportional representation at the convention, the situation is only beginning to clarify. Mrs. Clinton lost badly in all three contests yesterday. In Virginia, she could muster only 36% of the vote against Mr. Obama’s 64%. In Maryland, it was 60% for Mr. Obama and just 37% for Mrs. Clinton. In Washington DC, he beat her 75% to 24%. It isn’t that she lost, but that she lost by such huge margins that is damaging. A candidate with a close loss still gets a sufficient number of delegates to remain competitive. Mrs. Clinton actually lost her delegate lead (even including her lopsided advantage in superdelegates a/k/a party hacks appointed to the convention without voter input).

Based on the Potomac Primary vote, Mrs. Clinton’s coalition appears to be eroding. For example, Virginia’s exit polls showed Mr. Obama winning among women, Hispanics, seniors and in every income and education level. The white vote was more or less split. That is not a good sign for a Clinton campaign that has just replaced its manager and that has seen its deputy campaign manager resign in the last couple of days.

Mathematically, she needs to win 55% of the remaining delegates to get the nomination. That’s hard to do with only 36% of the vote. And if anyone is paying any attention, the states Senator Obama has won carry 173 electoral votes while those Mrs. Clinton won are worth just 153. Even her “big state” wins don’t argue in her favor against Mr. Obama’s numerous victories. That suggests that Mrs. Clinton’s superdelegate support is going to start eroding as well.

Mrs. Clinton isn’t out of it, though. This journal said after her third-place finish in the Iowa caucuses that she was snake-bit. Her mantle of inevitability was shredded, but winning New Hampshire saved her. Now, after losing every race since Super Tuesday, there is a whiff of failure and collapse coming from the campaign. She may well carry Texas and Ohio on March 4, but if she can’t get 60% of the vote there, it will only serve to slow Mr. Obama’s momentum. It won’t put her back in the lead for delegates. And if he wins those states . . . .

© Copyright 2008 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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