Clinton Takes 3 of 4 States

Senator Hillary Clinton of New York halted Senator Barack Obama's march to the Democratic nomination last night with victories in Rhode Island, Texas and Ohio. This may stop his momentum, and it certainly is a morale boost to her boosters. Had she lost either of the big states, the pressure to quit would have been intense. However, she is still mathematically doomed to finish second. Oddly, that doesn't necessarily mean she's going to lose.

First the good news for the woman from New York -- she did beat Senator Obama by 10% in Ohio. She did hold off a surge to him in the Texas primary part of that state's race. She did close the gap in elected delegates. She did revive her credibility after losing every race in the last month.

Now, the bad news is that she is running out of time and delegates to be won. Like a team with a 10 point lead in basketball with 3 minutes to go, Mr. Obama has a lead he can sit on.. With proportional representation in the Democratic rule book, she must close a gap in elected delegates of 135 (according to CNN's count) with 746 more delegates to be selected. That means she needs to win every remaining race by 10%. One doesn't see her winning Mississippi, South Dakota, Oregon or North Carolina at all. Also, Texas' caucus part of the process isn't done yet.

There are some things she can do to improve her odds. She can challenge the caucus part of the Texas vote in court. Her campaign alleges dirty tricks by the Obama camp. When looked at carefully, though, it appears to be better organization rather than sneakiness. She can also hope that Michigan and Florida come back into play (they held their contests too early to count according to party rules) without holding a new election in those states since Mr. Obama wasn't on the ballot in Michigan and since she won Florida (where he didn't campaign due to party rules). And she can always work over the super delegates, who are going to decide this thing, since the Clinton machine does hold a few apparatchiks' markers.

However, the more this goes on, the worse it is going to be for the Democrats. From here, each campaign is going to be ever more tempted to fight dirty. Mrs. Clinton's side already started last week with the kitchen-sink strategy. If Senator Obama doesn't respond, he may take a beating. If he does, then, he runs the risk of being called “just another politician.” Both sides will be doing John McCain's work for him.

© Copyright 2008 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

Kensington Review Home