Still Afloat

23 April 2008



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Clinton Carries Pennsylvania by 10%

In what the media had decided was a “must-win” for Senator Hillary Clinton, her campaign in Pennsylvania yesterday scored a solid victory over Senator Barack Obama. With more than 2 million votes cast, Mrs. Clinton had a 55% to 45% lead with 99% of the precincts reporting. This will allow her to keep the donors happy and to continue her campaign. The problem for her is it doesn’t bring her very much closer to the nomination.

The bloviators on TV and the internet will spend the next two weeks arguing over why Senator Obama can’t close the deal, why he can’t win the big states (he carried his home state of Illinois), and what he has to do to knock Mrs. Clinton out of the race. These are all trivial points, more boring that arguments over “bitter” and Reverend Wright. Senator Obama is ahead in elected delegates, and that is how score is kept under the Democratic Party’s rules.

Despite the reasonably strong popular vote victory, Mrs. Clinton is estimated to have picked up at most 88 delegates and Mr. Obama 70. That may change (if so it will be to Mr. Obama’ benefit) because of proportional representation and the weighting of the vote in favor of congressional districts that vote Democratic in the general election. Moving up 18 is good, but with 160 or so separating her from Mr. Obama, Mrs. Clinton didn’t do well enough.

Her supporters will try desperately to spin this into something it can’t be, that despite being behind, the score shouldn’t count. They are like a basketball team that’s down by 10 with a minute to play. They want to argue that maybe the game should go to them because they have made more three-point shots and dribble better. Try as they might, in two weeks, they will be worse off than they were on Monday.

On May 6, Indiana and North Carolina vote, and 157 delegates are at stake. Mr. Obama will sweep North Carolina, and Indiana will be close. Mr. Obama is flush with cash, and the Clinton campaign is effectively broke, so he could win them both. It is likely he’ll gain back 15 or so delegates. During the Pennsylvania-Indiana-North Carolina fortnight, 315 delegates will be apportioned, and Mrs. Clinton will only net a handful instead of the boatload she needs.

Having succeeded to a degree, though, with negative campaigning, the Clinton team will continue its rather grubby campaign (one that isn’t too awful by general election standards), attacking Senator Obama’s character and verbal miscues if any. Senator Obama may respond in kind from time to time, but as a former high school basketball champ, he knows he just has to run out the clock, and he knows how to do it – keep possession, shoot wisely and don’t foul.

© Copyright 2008 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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