Obama Runs up Delegate Score on Clinton

Yesterday’s primaries in Indiana and North Carolina came as close to a knock-out punch as this campaign has seen. Although Hillary Clinton won Indiana, it was by a slim 2% margin (close enough in some jurisdictions to force an automatic recount). In North Carolina, Senator Barack Obama’s 14% margin of victory increased his lead in the delegate count substantially. The race is not yet over, but there is little reason to believe that Senator Obama will not be the Democratic nominee.

While most of the analysts only talk about the delegate mathematics, the real problem for Senator Clinton is money. This morning the AP learned that she loaned her campaign another $6.4 million recently. That brings the total to $11.4 million. Her effort is burning through about $1 million daily. With yesterday’s inadequate showing, the donations from supporters may well dry up. Money remains the mother’s milk of American politics, and Mrs. Clinton’s campaign is in financial trouble.

As for the delegate math, the Obama campaign now claims to be fewer than 200 delegates short of the 2,025 needed to secure the nomination – and most news services and analysts who keep count agree. Thus, the Clinton campaign’s demand to count the Florida and Michigan primaries that were held against Democratic Party rules. If they were included, a majority of delegates would be 2,209, and Mrs. Clinton would buy some breathing room. She would still be far behind, however, and there is little point in the second place finisher claiming to be more electable. Seating both delegations at full strength according to the votes cast (and Mr. Obama withdrew his name from the Michigan ballot) merely delays matters.

The never-say-die Clintonistas have added campaign stops in West Virginia, which holds its primary next Tuesday. Given the demographics (rural, poor, white votes are numerous), she should secure a huge margin of victory. Unfortunately for her, the whole state has just 45 delegates at stake. Indeed, there are only 217 left to elect – the rest are the appointed party hack undecided super-delegates. One analyst estimates that if she wins all the remaining races by 65% to 35%, she will still finish more than 100 elected delegates behind, and Senator Obama is almost certain to win Oregon, Montana and South Dakota.

Last night, both candidates made speeches that were laden with olive branches to the other side. Both know that unity after this ugly exercise is vital in November. The devil is in the details. Mrs. Clinton’s campaign is broke, and she has staff members to take care of. The Obama campaign will be flush with cash, and there are lots of jobs that are convention related to give the Clinton people. The next week will be interesting because if Mrs. Clinton runs against John McCain, it will be a sign that she wants to settle things. If she continues to slam the Obama effort, then it means she isn’t ready to acknowledge reality, namely that she and her supporters threw away every advantage they had through laziness, conceit and poor planning.

© Copyright 2008 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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