Democrats Win Mississippi House Seat

While Hillary Clinton was winning a pointless victory in West Virginia yesterday, an important election was going on in Mississippi. Democrat Travis Childers beat Republican Greg Davis in the run-off of a special election to fill the vacancy left when Congressman Roger Wicker was appointed to serve out Trent Lott’s US Senate term. It wasn't really a close race (about 54% to 46%); a place as conservative as Mississipi’s First Congressional District going to the Democrats is a serious matter for the GOP. Worse for the Republicans, it is the third such loss they have taken in two months.

The first defeat was former House Speaker Dennis Hastert’s seat in the 14th Congressional District of Illinois. As a general rule, the Speaker’s seat is as safe as they come. One doesn’t get the kind of longevity in office necessary to become Speaker if one represents a marginal constituency. In March, Democrat Bill Foster’s defeat of Republican Jim Oberweis by 52.5% to 47.5% suggested that there was a major shift going on. But the GOP put a brave face on it. "The one thing 2008 has shown is that one election in one state does not prove a trend," Republican National Committee spokeswoman Karen Hanretty said.

The next special election the GOP lost was in Louisiana’s 6th CD. This seat has been Republican for 33 years. The Republicans tried to make the campaign a national one, tying the Democratic candidate to Barack Obama in TV ads. It didn’t work. State Representative. Donald J. Cazayoux Jr. had 49% of the vote to Woody Jenkins' 46%. The National Republican Congressional Campaign, which poured $1 million into the race, trotted out spokesman Ken Spain to claim, “When Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi were introduced into this campaign, Don Cazayoux was leading by a large margin in the polls and Republicans substantially closed that gap. This election speaks to the potential toxicity of an Obama candidacy and the possible drag he could have down-ballot this fall.” Which is all well and good, except that Mr. Jenkins lost despite the "toxicity."

Now, none of the Democratic candidates who won would ever be confused with the more liberal wing of the Democratic Party. They are, by and large, more socially conservative than the current crop of congressional representatives, and they will almost certainly be counted among the Blue Dog Democrats (a caucus of moderate to conservative Dems). The point is that the GOP brand appears to have been damaged by the last couple of years of Mr. Bush’s administration.

Of course, it is dangerous to suggest that the results of special elections allow one to accurately predict the final outcome of the general election. After all, there are always local issues that arise. All the same, when conservative Republicans can’t hold a district in Mississippi, one might want to check on the emergency kit because there may well be a storm coming.

© Copyright 2008 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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