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18 June 2008



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Gay Marriage Won’t Sway November Vote

As of now, it is legal for two people of the same sex to get married in the State of California, which joins Massachusetts in permitting gay marriage. Pundits on both sides of the right-left divide have suggested that this will give social conservatives, who aren’t thrilled with John McCain as nominee, a reason to turn up and vote Republican. Some have even suggested it could cost Barack Obama the election. They are wrong.

Few can doubt that the issue of Adam and Steve having the same legal right to wedded bliss/misery that Adam and Eve did have an impact in the 2004 election. There were 11 states where anti-gay marriage referenda were on the ballot, and they all passed. Not surprisingly, those same states went Republican, including closely fought Ohio -- the difference, many say, between having a re-elected George Bush and a newly elected John Kerry.

Two things are different about 2008 compared to 2004. First, the country, or more accurately, the electorate has changed. Under the Karl Rove 2004 campaign theory, swing voters were extinct. Elections were won by bringing out the base and hoping it made up 50% + 1. Between the Clinton and Obama campaigns, that just isn’t true any more because there are literally millions of new voters. Among younger voters, the bloc with the most growth this year, tolerance of gay marriage is more widespread than in the rest of the population.

Second, the places where same sex marriage could be an issue had their referenda already, in 2004. Ohio and the others can’t put another anti-gay marriage law to the voters, and 41 states have such laws. In California, where there will be a referendum on the recent court decision equalizing the protection of Californians under the law, and gay marriage will be an issue. However, it isn’t going to be a one-sided issue. The social conservatives who are motivated to vote will likely have their ballots cancelled out by recently or soon-to-be married gays and lesbians in San Francisco, West Hollywood and everywhere else they live.

A final point that merits consideration is simple exhaustion with the issue. The economy is weak and shows little sign of improvement. The war in Iraq-Nam continues with no end in sight. The war in Afghanistan looks to be worsening as Taliban fighters are surrounding the city of Kandahar. The mortgage crisis, $4 a gallon gasoline and soaring college costs have the attention of most Americans. Gay marriage will be an issue but only one among many and not a very decisive one at that.

© Copyright 2008 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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