Georgian Crisis Illustrates Limits of US Power

Despite being thoroughly discredited by the Iraq-Namese War, the neo-cons in America have been howling over the “Russo-Georgian War.” America, they claim, must act to save this brave little democracy from the Second Coming of the Soviet Union. As ever, they fail to understand that American power is not infinite and that by defending everything, they defend nothing. Nor do they realize that losing a battle doesn’t mean losing a war.

This journal is under no illusions about the nature of the Russian regime. Messrs. Putin and Medvedev are not the sorts one would invite to a decent dinner party or week-end of golf. They are, however, ideal if a debtor is slow on paying. They are Russian nationalists of the 19th century variety and Panslavists of the first degree. They enjoy the backing of the majority of Russians because life has improved since the days of Boris Yeltsin and low oil prices.

Their attack on Georgia was in response to a miscalculation by the Georgian government. Specifically, the Tbilisi government thought the break-away Georgian territory of South Ossetia could be forced back under the central government's control without a response from Russia. Russia has been playing games in this region for almost two decades, and it has been provoking the government of President Mikheil Saakashvili since he came to power. Had the attack not come, the Russians would find another way to beat Georgia into submission.

Yet when Vice President Dick Cheney said the Russian moves “must not go unanswered,” one must ask, “answered them how and with what?” Russia retains something like 10,000 nuclear weapons. It isn’t the impoverished nation of 10 years ago, and while it can’t roll tanks across Central Europe in vast numbers, it can certainly resist any nation that chooses to engage it militarily. So what can America and the West actually do? In the immediate term, nothing.

The usual methods of applying pressure don’t work here. Sending a note will be ignored, cutting off aid is pointless because Russia doesn’t need any, withdrawing the ambassador changes nothing on the ground, and taking it to the UN is ridiculous as Russia has a Security Council veto. Sending weapons to the Georgians might prolong the killing, but there aren’t enough Georgians to use them to change the result in any meaningful way.

The truth is that America has less power relative to the rest of the world than it did before the Iraq-Namese war. The nation is militarily and financially unable to influence events in the Caucasus because of Russia’s new found wealth and America’s policy bungling. Any sane policy must be founded on these facts, and Russia is going to be able to do as it pleases for a while. What America must do is ensure that its core interests (and that does not include “spreading democracy”) are protected. America can’t do anything about Georgia at the moment, and it has little interest in confronting Russia in the matter. It’s unfortunate, but it’s the truth.

© Copyright 2008 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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