US, Poland Sign Anti-Missile Defense Deal

If the idea is to annoy Russia, then the US-Polish anti-missile defense deal signed earlier this week is a masterstroke. If its purpose is to protect Poland and other parts of Eastern Europe from missile attack, it’s premature at best. If its intention is to enhance American power, it does the opposite.

The arrangement calls for 10 anti-missile interceptors set up at a US base in eastern Poland. US Secretary of State neoCondoleezza Rice said, “It will help both the [NATO] alliance and Poland and the United States respond to the coming threats. Missile defense, of course, is aimed at no one. It is in our defense that we do this.” Yes, the Maginot Line wasn’t aimed at any particular threat to France (Spain, perhaps?); it was just there for its defense.

The parallel is significant because, like the French fortress system, the US missile defense system doesn’t work. Although the Pentagon says there have been 26 successes out of 27 tests, the data are cherry picked, according to analysis from the Center for Defense Information. First off, this figure includes 11 tests to see if the interceptor could fly. The Pentagon may as well count the Mercury, Gemini and Apollo launches. Other tests have required knowing the trajectory of the target in advance, no decoys, a homing beacon on the target (which is as unrealistic as it gets) and no need for a “kill” to count as a success. In other words, a surprise attack by 5 missiles would yield 5 hits, but the system has a better than 95% success rate -- Pentagon math.

If the threat is from the Russians, the deployment is doomed. Spetsnaz special forces could take it out in advance of a missile attack, or at very least, prevent optimum operation of the system. Or the Russians could simply bomb it, or launch 100 warheads and overwhelm it. If the threat is a rogue state or terrorist launch from the Mid-East, why would Easter Europe be a target? Surely, the US bases the Gulf and Iraq-Nam make more sense.

The NATO alliance, of which Poland is a member, doesn’t need weapon systems that don’t work, that can’t deliver what they promise, or that draw funds from more realistic and reliable systems. This deal merely gives Mr. Putin and his siloviki capos an excuse for messing in Poland’s affairs. After recent events in Georgia, this reminds one of the French and British guarantee to Poland regarding Danzig in 1939. The result was almost 6 years of war that benefited neither the French, British nor Polish.

© Copyright 2008 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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