The Polls Aren’t Even Wrong

In physics, there is a phrase “not even wrong,” coined by Wolfgang Pauli. By this, he meant that the statement in question couldn’t be falsified or used to predict anything; thus it was scientifically without meaning. In a sense, America’s polling for the general election meets the criteria for “not even wrong.” Most of the pollsters assumptions are simply incorrect, resulting in garbage in, garbage out.

The key to any election is turnout, “who votes?” In virtually all of the polls this year, the pollsters have focused on “likely voters.” What, exactly, is a likely voter? Often, they are registered voters (a larger set) who state to the pollster that they are “almost certain” to cast a ballot. Usually, they are asked a few questions about their electoral behavior to help decide their status without a direct “are you going to vote?”

One of the flaws stems from using previous behavior to anticipate future action. If one voted in the last election, Gallup and others presume that there is a fair chance that voter will cast a ballot again. What of first time voters? Gallup makes adjustments for those in the 18-24 age group, as most were too young to vote the last time around. But what of newly registered 45-year-olds? What of new citizens who probably have great enthusiasm to vote than anyone else? In an election where so much is at stake, and in which so many people have taken an interest in politics for the first time in their lives, this skews the da10:59 AM 9/8/2008ta.

And one cannot forget that the US elections are a state-by-state, winner-take-all (except in Maine and Nebraska) votes for the Electoral College. Running up huge majorities or wining a state by a single vote give the exact same result in the number of electors won. That is why the talk focuses on the “battleground” states. New York is voting Democratic (it almost always does), and Texas won’t. The only polls that really are worthwhile are done at the state level not the national.

Finally, there is the small matter of the next 8 weeks, the real campaign. Every poll is a snapshot of what is going on. Senator Obama had been cleaning Senator McCain’s clock in the polls right after the Democratic Party’s convention. Now, some polls are alleging Mr. McCain has taken a lead. However, the election is on November 4, not September 4. The polls that are out today don’t reflect today’s thinking – they reflect last week’s. The world has moved on, and the polls aren’t even wrong.

© Copyright 2008 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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