Georgia Fallout

17 September 2008



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Ukraine’s Coalition Splits, Elections Don’t Loom

The Russo-Georgian conflict claimed another victim yesterday, the ruling coalition of Ukraine. President Victor Yushchenko has 30 days to cobble together a new government. If he can’t, the country will go to the polls. However, the politics of Ukraine have undergone a tectonic shift that may mean elections are unnecessary.

In brief, Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko didn’t back Mr. Timoshenko’s view of August’s violence in South Ossetia. His view is that any self-respecting Ukrainian patriot would naturally side with brave little Georgia. Indeed, his backers accused her of “high treason.” In addition, when her party sided with the opposition to curb presidential powers, Mr. Yushchenko charged her with fostering a “political and constitutional coup d’etat” and claiming the two parties were trying to form a “pro-Kremlin” bloc.

Naturally, Ms. Timoshenko denies all of that. Instead she blamed him for “destroying” the coalition. She charged that he wanted to undermine her popularity with voters to weaken her chances of succeeding him. Presidential elections are due next year or in 2010 will likely pit Mr. Yushchenko against Ms. Timoshenko and former president Viktor Yanukovich.

Whoever wins will inherit a mess. There is the question of NATO membership, which the collapse of the government will delay. Inflation is ticking along at 31.1%, and S&P cut its credit rating as a result. Around 8% of the population lives in poverty according to official figures. Above all, there are relations with Russia to consider.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is based in Ukraine at Sevastopol. The lease covering this runs to 2017. The Crimea is largely pro-Russian. Ms. Timoshenko says that when the lease expires, the fleet will have to leave, and there is no port as good as Sevastopol on the Black Sea. Rear-Admiral Andrei Baranov, deputy head of the fleet, said Monday, “We are not planning to go anyway. There are no options.” A lack of options is never a good arrangement.

© Copyright 2008 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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