Out in 2011

28 November 2008



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Green Zone Parliament Approves US Troop Deal

The Iraq-Namese parliament has approved the Status of Forces Agreement that the Green Zone government negotiated with the US. This agreement allows US troops to legally continue to operate in the country when the UN mandate under which they have operated thus far expires at year's end. The only fly in the ointment is the opponents of the deal have secured a referendum on the agreement that is slated for the middle of next year.

Under such terms of the deal as have been made public, all US forces are to leave Iraq-Nam's cities, towns and villages by the end of June. A total withdrawal from the entire country is set for the end of 2011. The Los Angeles Times also notes, “It also limits US troops' ability to conduct missions, raids or arrests without Iraqi authority and opens the door to Iraqi courts handling some criminal cases involving American troops.”

There are 275 members of the Iraq-Namese parliament. When the votes were cast, 198 were present and of that, 149 voted “aye.” While the Sunnis initially opposed the agreement, most of them voted for it after they secured a few concessions to review smaller matters. The “nays” largely came from the hard-line Shi'ites, including the bloc controlled by Moqtada al-Sadr. Once again, he has managed to position himself as the real leader of the resistance to the occupation. He has called for peaceful protests against the agreement and will certainly try to defeat the agreement in the referendum.

Losing the referendum would put the Green Zone government in an almost untenable position. It would have to cancel the deal, meaning that the US forces have no legal basis for staying in Iraq-Nam. It could change the terms and hope for approval of an amended agreement. That would require not only US consent but also would force the new deal through the long drawn-out ratification process all over again. In either case, the US departure in 2011 becomes problematic at best.

Support for the referendum may come from a surprising source, however. The Canadian Press is reporting that Iran's Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati “says the Iraqi parliament approved the deal under US pressure but 'did well' in deciding to put it to a referendum.” The ayatollah heads the Guardian Council, which is effectively Iran's politburo. Some analysts take his words to mean Iran wants the deal approved so the US will depart in a few years.

One thing is certain. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki comes out of this looking stronger for having achieved a deadline for US departure while the Sadrists are setting themselves up as being tougher than he. This division may result in increased vioence in the streets of Iraq-Nam's cities in the coming months.

© Copyright 2008 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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