Predictions for 2008 Were Middling

This year's crystal ball was a bit cloudy. Out of the 11 predictions made a year ago, only 4 were correct. One might have gone the right way had the prediction avoided extra specificity, namely the price of gasoline. And onther involving soccer was painfully right. Still, one must own up to the errors as well as taking credit for the right predictions.

• “The Democratic Party will win the White House and retain control of both the House of Representatives and the US Senate;” That was almost too easy.
• “Gasoline will set a new price record in the US, but it will not officially exceed $4 a gallon.” Shame the sentence continued after "US."
• “New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg will run unsuccessfully for president.” One didn't expect him to undo the rule about a third term passed twice by referendum.
• “The US will not experience a recession, classically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.” While the fourth quarter results won't be available for a while, the point is conceded.
• “The US dollar will lose value this year. New York Board of Trade's US dollar index, a gauge of the dollar's performance against a basket of six major currencies, will finish below the current level of 76.01.” It finished at 77.73 yesterday, owing to the rest of the world being worse off.
• “The Writers’ Guild of America will continue its strike through the Oscars, requiring a revamping of the ceremony.” The WGA went back to work, but the Oscars weren't the same. Still, the Kensington Review awards no partial credit.
• “Usama bin Laden will still be a freeman on December 31, 2008.” Remember him?
• “Boris Johnson will defeat Ken Livingstone to become Mayor of London in May’s election.” Who can forget his flag waving antics in Beijing?
• “Mr. Brooks”, which starred Kevin Costner, will win the Razzie for Worst Film of the Year.” Actually “I Know Who Killed Me” rightly won.
• “TV ratings for the Beijing Olympics will be lower than those for the 2004 Games in Athens.” Thanks Mr. Phelps.
• “Finally, Manchester United will win the English Premiership, damn.” Damn indeed.