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6 April 2009



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World Over-Reacts to Failed North Korean Missile Launch

North Korea, probably the worst country in the entire world, sent a rocket up over the week-end that was supposed to put an satellite in orbit. According to the North Koreans, the satellite is circling the earth playing revolutionary anthems. According to just about everybody else, the satellite isn't in orbit, and the missile launch was just a huge provocation. The UN held an emergency meeting yesterday to consider action. The world is over-reacting just a bit.

The North Korean sociopath-ocracy tested a nuclear bomb on October 9, 2006. Because of the very small yield, opinion varies as to whether the test was a success. The missile launch on Saturday appears to be in the same category. "Stage one of the missile fell into the Sea of Japan. The remaining stages along with the payload itself landed in the Pacific Ocean," according to a statement from NORAD and the Northern Command.

That being the case, the concern is that North Korea is approaching the ability to launch nuclear weapons that threaten its neighbors. This is very over-blown. North Korea has not clearly demonstrated a nuclear capability, nor has it really proven itself capable of hitting a target with a missile. A further factor weighing against the alarmist approach is the necessity of fitting the nuke onto the missile. The miniaturization of the bomb appears to be beyond North Korea's abilities.

A different concern is that the Pyongyang government may be tempted to sell its technology to terrorist organizations or other rogue states. While this is a much more realistic threat, one must remember that the technology doesn't really appear to work all that well. A far greater threat exists in Al Qaeda or another group sailing a container full of conventional explosives into a western port. While not as terrifying as a nuclear blast, this threat is one that could materialize any minute. Those interested in such an attack don't need North Korean assistance.

What the North Koreans are doing is what they always do. They create a tense situation and deliberately act up to force concessions (bribes actually) from the west and from its neighbors. The fact that President Obama is new to the job probably has Pyongyang ratcheting things up a bit more than they might to see of what he is made. The appropriate noises have come from the west, and now, it's a matter of back channel diplomacy to find out what the North Koreans want this time. And what the rest of the world can extract as part of a nasty little deal that will follow for as long as China refuses to rein in its client.

© Copyright 2009 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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