The World Over-Reacts to Swine Flu

An outbreak of swine flu in Mexico has the world in a tizzy. Over 150 people have died there, and thanks to international air travel, it is spreading. The World Health Organization has moved the threat level to 4 out of a possible 6. The press is in a feeding frenzy since nothing sells papers like life-threatening disease. The trouble is that everyone is over-reacting to what is a relatively minor health problem.

When dealing with any disease, the two important factors are the mortality rate and the ease with which it spreads. For example, Ebola has a mortality rate as high as 90%, but it spreads only by contact with an infected person's tissues or by consumption of infected meat (so far as anyone can tell). In contrast, the common cold doesn't often kill (unless there are complications like a compromised immune system), but it is an airborne virus that spreads readily. In the case of the flu, the Centers for Disease Control say that 36,000 people in the US die every year from the disease. That gives it a mortality rate of between 5% and 15%, concentrated mainly among the very young, the very old, and the previously very sick.

The problem is that the world doesn't know if the 150 plus deaths in Mexico occurred among 100,000 infected persons or 10 million. In addition, the mortality rate is easily affected by proper, early treatment. The first to die probably didn't know what they had. Now, people are rushing to the emergency room at the first sneeze.

What is particularly interesting is the small number of cases in the US, currently under 100. There has not been a single death out of that number. At St. Francis Prep in Queens New York, 22 students have come down with the disease (they went to Mexico at spring break). According to Mayor Bloomberg, they are all recovering nicely.

So, where is the pandemic? There is only panic. Why are the governments of Russia, Egypt and elsewhere slaughtering pigs when there is no evidence that eating pork causes swine flu? Why are people in Mexico wearing surgical masks when they aren't adequate to stop a small virus? Why are businesses and schools closing? Why are governments in Canada and Cuba banning flights to Mexico?

Getting sick is no fun, and there are some diseases that can kill quite easily (for example, small pox). However, the swine flu is not likely to kill very many people, and caution is always a better policy than alarm. After all when swine flu last appeared in the US in 1976, 273 Army recruits died at Fort Dix. Thousands of Health Department workers and Red Cross volunteers fanned out all over the nation. They gave out nearly 3 million doses of the vaccine. Nevertheless, not a single person off the Fort Dix base died. It's probably going to fizzle again, like SARS and bird flu. The pandemic that is coming is not going to be swine flu.

© Copyright 2009 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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