US Elections 2009 Were Not That Important

Yesterday was election day in many parts of the US. However, only two members of Congress were chosen in special elections, only two governorships were at stake, and voters cast ballots for local offices and referenda that are truly provincial affairs. The Republicans, who haven't won much of anything, trumpeted their victories as the Second Coming of the Prophet Reagan. The Democrats, who can't seem to pass a health care bill despite huge majorities in Congress, claimed the voting meant little. Independents drew blood by casting out the incumbents where they could. However, when the most important job up for grabs is the governorship of New Jersey and when turn-out is pitifully low, the balloting is merely a single datum, not evidence of a trend.

The GOP did pick up the governorship of both Virginia and New Jersey. The media believe that the former was significant because it was a state that went for President Obama a year ago and because he campaigned there for the Democratic candidate, Creigh Deeds. However, Virginia has been a Republican state in presidential races since 1968. It occasionally throws up a Democratic governor (Doug Wilder for instance), but it is still a rather conservative state. In New Jersey, John Corzine (former head of Goldman Sachs) lost by a few percentage points to Chris Christie because Mr. Corzine ran a bad campaign after 8 years of not really achieving much in reducing taxes. New Jersey is heavily taxed and visitors often wonder where the money goes.

The Democrats should have been out harping on their wins in the two House seats that were up for grabs. Both were vacant because of presidential appointments of their occupants. In California, Lieutenant Governor Joe Garamendi crushed the opposition in the 10th Congressional District, where Democrats have an 18 point advantage in voter registration.

Meanwhile, the bizarre race in New York's 23rd District resulted in a win for the Dems in a seat they haven't held this side of the Civil War. Because New York has several "major parties" under its daft ballot access laws and because candidates can run as nominee from more than one party, the Conservatives usually back the Republicans. However this time, the local GOP nominated Dede Scozzafava who backs rather moderate social positions. This annoyed the Teabagger and other proto-fascists into nominating Doug Hoffman, a man who knew nothing about the district according to the local press and who doesn't live in the district. Sarah Palin and Rush Limbaugh backed him, while Newt Gingrich supported Ms. Scozzafava. Four days before the election, Ms. Scozzafava withdrew trailing badly, and she threw her support to Bill Owens, the Democrat. Still, it was too late for her name to come off the ballot. Mr. Owens won, but Ms. Scozzafava garnered 6% of the vote.

Much is being made of the split in the Republican Party that this may represent. This journal has said for quite some time that the Reagan coalition is fragmenting. However, the GOP is not yet involved in factional strife that will relegate it to the ash-heap of history. There wasn't enough other evidence of this split to make one certain it had happened -- after all, the party won two governorships.

When it comes to referenda, three were more important than the one in Ohio allowing casinos. The first two involved attempts to ban gay couples from marrying (or some other term for pledging one's whole being to another). In Maine, the voters rejected civil equality. In Washington state, it appears they may achieve approximate equality. And returning to Maine, the voters wisely shot down a "Tax Payers' Bill of Rights." TABOR would require tax increases to be approved in future referenda. When this was tried in Colorado, the result was financial disaster. Maine went 1 for 2 yesterday.

Overall, it was a mixed bag for both political parties from which they will no doubt draw the wrong lessons for 2010, when enough voters might show up and when enough offices will be contested for something important to occur, unlike yesterday.

© Copyright 2009 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Fedora Linux.

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