Predictions for 2011

As is customary here, this journal begins each new year with 11 predictions for the coming 12 months. The house rules are simple; each must be a statement that can be empirically verified as true or false. There's no room for Nostradamic quatrains, obtuse language of the horoscopes in the dailies, or weasel words like "significantly," "virtually" or other bureaucratic qualifiers. Last year's predictions came true a respectable 7 out of 11 times. For 2011, the Kensington Review forecasts:

• The May referendum in UK on alternative vote will fail.
• US non-farm payrolls will increase by more than 1 million by December 31, 2011
• The US will start withdrawing troops from Afghanistan in July as per Mr. Obama's promise.
• The first major Republican presidential candidate for the 2012 election will formally announce before April 1, 2011.
• Fewer US banks will fail in 2011 than failed in 2010, when the FDIC closed 157 banks.
• Pakistan's Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani will resign or be forced out by the military.
• Australian Prime Mininster Julia Gillard will have to call an election when she loses a vote of confidence.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average will break 13,000 at some stage in 2011.
• The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline (as measured by the US Department of Energy) will set a record topping the $4.10 seen on July 7, 2008.
• Rahm Emanuel will be the next mayor of Chicago -- without a run-off.
• Russia will finally join the World Trade Organization.