Irish Political System on Verge of Breaking

The Irish political system may have broken completely in the last few days. Already under stress from the draconian budget cuts imposed to fix its financial and banking mess, things have gone from bad to worse to surreal. The government has no majority, the Taoiseach [prime minister] retains his office but has resigned the leadership of his party, and the finance bill that needs to pass before elections are called may not pass at all. This is beyond a political crisis; it is a constitutional disaster.

The trouble began with attempts to clean up the country's finances that were undermined by property speculation, excessive credit and irrational exuberance. The Taoiseach, Brian Cowen, and his Finance minister, Brian Lenihan, of the Fianna Fail party denied that Ireland would need a bailout from the IMF or Europe. On Sunday November 28, they accepted an 85 billion euro bailout at 5.8%. Some Irishmen thought they had been lied to while others thought the government made a bad deal. The Green Party, which has been the junior coalition member, decided to cease supporting the government once the budget and associated finance measures had passed the Dail [parliament]. Thus far, things were bad but still manageable.

Disaster arrived on Dublin's doorstep when Mr. Cowen held a press conference on January 16 to say he was staying on as Taoiseach despite revelations about personal contacts with former Anglo Irish Bank chief Sean Fitzpatrick. At the same time, he said there were concerns within Fianna Fail about his leadership and said a no confidence vote would occur on January 18. Within 2 hours, Minister for Foreign Affairs Micheal Martin said he'd vote against the leader and properly tendered his resignation, which Mr. Cowen improperly refused. Mr. Cowen survived Tuesday's vote of no confidence and finally accepted Mr. Martin's resignation. The next day, four Fianna Fail ministers resigned and announced they won't stand for re-election as Mr. Cowen took on the foreign minister's portfolio.

Yet it gets worse. The Green Party leader and environment minister, John Gormley, heard about the ministerial resignations on RTE radio, a breach of custom and courtesy not hearing it from his coalition partner. It emerged that Mr. Cowen wanted to appoint back benchers to fill the empty cabinet slots, and the Green Party met to discuss the names involved. Then, Enterprise Minister Batt O'Keeffe resigned. Before Thursday was over, Mr. Cowen told the Dail that he was simply going to have existing ministers cover the vacant positions, hinting the Greens stopped his reshuffle. He announced a general election for March 11.

At this stage, worse turns surreal. Friday, Fianna Fail parliamentarian Mary O'Rourke, who supported Mr. Cowen on Tuesday said she wanteed to review Brian Cowen's leadership. On Saturday, Mr. Cowen quit as leader of Fianna Fail but not as Taoiseach. He stated, "I'm concerned that renewed internal criticism of Fianna Fail is deflecting attention from this important debate." This was too much for the Greens, who pulled out of the coalition yesterday. So the all-important finance bill on Tuesday will be joined by a no-confidence motion which would force an election not on March 11 but on February 18 or 25.

Mr. Cowen has botched this about as badly as it could be botched, but one wonders if any other politician behaving differently would be in a better position. The unpleasant fact is that the finance bill will be very damaging to the Irish economy in the short and medium term, and what politician wants to be blamed for that? As a result, the election will follow, not precede, the budget battle. That allows the new government to blame this government for the pain.

By playing around as he has, Mr. Cowen was trying to buy time for his party's fortunes to rally. Most politicians would have done the same, but perhaps, they would have done it better. What this whole sorry affair shows is that under this kind of stress, the Irish system is vulnerable. Whether Ireland needs a better class of politician or a new constitutional framework for its finances is hard to determine. However, as they say in the Obama White House, never let a good crisis go to waste. It would be a shame if Ireland doesn't make some fundamental changes as a result of the last two months of political foolishness.

© Copyright 2011 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.

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