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Overpopulation, Economic Progress End Era of Cheap Food
Higher food prices are here to stay, according to a new report from the British government. The 206-page document called The Future of Food and Farming illustrates how a population of 9 billion meat-eating humans is simply unsustainable under the current food production and distribution system. The report says, "Without change, the global food system will continue to degrade the environment and compromise the world's capacity to produce food in the future, as well as contributing to climate change and the destruction of biodiversity." Even with change, things are going to be difficult.
Right now, the current way humanity feeds itself is far from ideal.
Hunger remains widespread. 925 million people experience hunger: they lack access to sufficient [amounts] of the major macronutrients (carbohydrates, fats and protein). Perhaps another billion are thought
to suffer from 'hidden hunger', in which important micronutrients (such as vitamins and minerals)
are missing from their diet, with consequent risks of physical and mental impairment. In contrast,
a billion people are substantially over-consuming, spawning a new public health epidemic involving chronic conditions such as type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Much of the responsibility for
these three billion people having suboptimal diets lies within the global food system.
The report also notes that food prices by mid-century could be as much as 50% higher than they are today. For people in the developed world, that is an inconvenience that will undermine their ability to make payments on a second car. For people in the less developed nations, it could mean a fall from being full at night to going to bed hungry. That is a particularly bad thing. Professor Charles Godfray of Oxford University, the chairman of the report's expert group, said that the food price spikes of 2007 and 2008 that led to rioting are a foretaste of things to come. One must remember that the revolution in Tunisia last week had its roots in food price increases.
The prescription is simple to describe and will prove difficult to implement. First, "[m]ore food must be produced sustainably through the spread and implementation of existing
knowledge, technology and best practice, and by investment in new science and innovation and the social infrastructure that enables food producers to benefit from all of these." Second, demand for those foods that are resource-intensive, like beef versus fish, needs to be limited. Third, waste needs to be radically reduced. Fourth and finally, "[t]he political and economic governance of the food system must be improved to increase food
system productivity and sustainability."
The report goes on to say that all of this must be tackled in tandem.
Yet, feeding the world's billions ignores the fact that it is the increased billions who are the problem. The coming food price increases, and related political instability, stem from a simple Malthusian problem. There is sufficient food right now for 4 or 5 billion humans. There would be a massive excess if there were but 3 billion. Currently, though, there are 6.8 billion, and by mid-century, one can expect 9.2 billion. While a great many will oppose the idea on moral and ethical grounds, population decline is vital in humanity's struggle for a sustainable future. Until the population declines in a meaningful way, a more efficient food production and distribution system is plausible, but it is definitely the second best solution.
© Copyright 2011 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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