Cogito Ergo Non Serviam

Nationalists Propose Scottish Independence Question

The Scottish National Party's leader and First Minister of Scotland, Alex Salmond, used Wednesday's Burns Night celebrations to announce how he wants the 2014 independence referendum's question worded. The proposal is already setting off unionists on both sides of the border as they claim it is a leading question. Well, it is, and since he holds a majority in the Scottish Assembly, perhaps it's his right to ask "Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?" Elections do have consequences.

According to polls in Scotland, most residents of the northern kingdom do not want out-right independence, but they do want more power for Edinburgh and to take fewer orders from London. However, the SNP is dedicated to full independence, and for Mr. Salmond and his followers a referendum on independence has always been a matter of when rather than if. It is trite to call a Scotsman"canny" so instead, one suggests that Mr. Salmond's question is brilliant. On its face, it appears to be a neutral wording of a simple proposition. However, in the post-colonial world, who hasn't been taught that independence of one nation from another is a good thing?

The rightist Telegraph, which will be in the tank for a "No" vote and has already begun lying about the campaign (after all, it is a sassenach Tory rag), reported on polling of this question and some others that are illuminating. Just over 50% of those polled in Scotland would vote "aye" on Mr. Salmond's questions. When asked "Do you want Scotland to remain part of the United Kingdom?" more than 60% said "yes." A similar result came when the question was worded, "Do you want Scotland to leave the United Kingdom and become an independent country?"

This being the Telegraph, the paper then admitted, "Although the surveys are not scientifically weighted, more than 1,000 people responded to each and they provide the clearest indication yet of how Mr Salmond is attempting to manipulate the result in his favour." Not scientifically weighted says all one needs to know.

What the various answers to the various questions show is that Scots aren't quite sure what they want to do yet and that the next two and a half years will be a time of significant discussion. This journal acknowledges that the heart can easily opt for independence while the head may prefer the status quo. A compromise between the two, in practical terms known as "devo max" (meaning maximum devolution, keeping the Queen and a common defense and foreign policy only), probably won't make the ballot as it is not enough for the SNP, too much for the unionists, and it would probably carry the day.

In the end, a leading question is probably good for a couple of percentage points at most. That said, the fact that the SNP has won a majority in the Scottish Parliament under a vote counting system designed to prevent absolute majorities suggests that the unionists are already losing the argument. And since the nationalists are in the majority, perhaps they are entitled to word the question the way they want -- surely that would be democratic.

Regardless of the question, what is most important is turn out. If 99% of the population stays home, even the winner is really a loser. Both sides know this and will be working for a large turn out. Much can happen in 30 months, and much will. Indeed, this campaign promises to be almost as long as an American presidential race.

© Copyright 2011 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.



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