Cogito Ergo Non Serviam

Russia Sends Assad Anti-Ship Missiles

Russia has delivered anti-ship missiles to the struggling Syrian regime. The Foreign Ministry in Moscow claims the shipments don't violate any international rules, but this matter goes far beyond international law. It is, in effect, an insurance policy to protect the Assad government from strikes by the West, which have become more likely after experts confirmed the use of chemical weapons in the Syrian civil war. Russia has given Syria a counter-strike capacity.

Deterrence is the cornerstone of a great many global security relationships. Nation A won't attack Nation B because Nation B can inflict sufficient damage on Nation A to make the attack counter-productive. In the extreme, this kept the US and USSR from blowing up the entire planet during the Cold War. The Korean peninsula is a contemporary example of this phenomenon.

Where there is no ability for a counter-strike, the situation becomes unstable quickly. America's dealings with Saddam Hussein in Iraq demonstrate this perfectly. There was very little the Saddamite regime could do to harm America, and so, the American government went to war and wiped out the Ba'athist government in Baghdad as soon as it was convenient. This is why Iran wants a nuclear weapons. Iraq had no counter-strike capacity and was conquered; North Korea has such a capacity, and it is relatively safe from an American or South Korean offensive.

In the case of the Assad regime, these anti-ship missiles have absolutely no military value against the rebels. The Syrian resistance has no navy, so clearly, the rebels are not the target. Instead, there are the Israeli and American navies in the Eastern Mediterranean. Israel has already used its air force twice to attack inside Syria in the last few weeks. With the use of chemical weapons, the Assad regime crossed an American "red line," and therefore, some kind of response should be on the way. These anti-ship missiles ensure that the Americans cannot make a military move without running some kind of risk. Syria sinking a US naval vessel would be grounds for an American invasion, but the Assad regime and the Russians are betting the missiles are more valuable as a threat than as an actual weapon. Like the nuclear arsenals of the Cold War, these weapons aren't really meant to be used except in extreme circumstances.

President Vladimir Putin is playing a crafty game here. On the one hand, his government has hosted several world leaders (most recently, Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel) in an attempt to find a way to end the strife in Syria. On the other, the Russians are sending weapons to prop up the Damascus government, This is a strategy with a long history in world diplomacy, talking hwile arming. The only trouble with it is that, on occasion, someone miscalculates and the conflict escalates. One hopes the coolest heads prevail.

© Copyright 2013 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.



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