Cogito Ergo Non Serviam

Putin Claims Right to Intervene in Ukraine

During his annual live phone-in TV broadcast, President Vladimir Putin of Russia had to field a great many questions about Ukraine. In his answers, the world got an insight into his thinking that does not bode well for peace in the region. He stated that Russia has a right to intervene if things get out of hand in Ukraine before adding he hoped he would not have to exercise that right. While he might have a case given recent developments in international law, it is the Russian government causing the instability.

Over night, 33 pro-Russian agitators attacked a military unit in the town of Mariupol, which is on the Sea of Azov. The attackers used Molotov cocktails, and the troops answered with return fire. Three of the attackers died, 13 more received serious wounds, and the troops have detained 63 of the others.

The Kyiv government's Interior Minister Arsen Avakov was not playing around. "Through joint efforts by the armed police and national guard the attacking gang was dispersed after a short battle, most of them were cornered and disarmed," Mr Avakov said. "Because it was such an aggressive attack on a military unit - an interior ministry group - we decided to reinforce them with Omega special forces. Helicopters have been deployed."

This is exactly the kind of escalation that Russia most desires, although it is hard to argue that Mr. Avakov had much of a choice. As the Kyiv government ratchets up its lethal options, death and injury are more likely with each encounter. When the violence hits a certain level, when the appropriate spark hits the puddle of gasoline that is eastern Ukraine, Russia plans to step in.

There is some evidence that the Russian troops are already there, although in his broadcast last night Mr. Putin denied it (well, he would say that, wouldn't he?). For one thing, the pro-Russian agitators who are armed carry AK-100s. These are issued exclusively to members of the Russian Army. Their uniforms (minus insignia) and radios are all new and match Russian standard issue. The source here is the BBC's Famil Ismailov.

Sadly, recent international events have brought a new concept to international law, the idea of humanitarian intervention. Various states have used this in various ways all under the rather noble pretext of saving lives. Rwanda certainly could have used some 20 years ago. Bosnia and Libya are perfect examples of this concept in action. And the latter forms Mr. Putin's approach to Ukraine. He will intervene, ostensibly to save lives, and then, political change will follow in one form or another.

As this is written, the foreign ministers of the EU, Ukraine and Russia are meeting in Geneva with US Secretary of State John Kerry. One doubts whether anything will come of their discussions. The EU and US have very few cards to play, and Ukraine's government is unelected and becoming desperate with its actions in the east. Above all, Russia has no interest in resolving the matter just yet. The spark hasn't hit the gasoline yet.

© Copyright 2014 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.



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